基于动力系统反演理论的马斯京根流量演算误差校正  

Study on Error Correction Method of Muskingum Flow Calculation Based on Dynamic System Inversion Theory

作　　者：梁忠民[1] 王旭伟 宁亚伟[1] 王军[1] 李彬权[1] 胡义明[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水力发电》2017年第12期9-12,共4页Water Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项(2016YFC0402706;2016YFC0402709);水利部公益性行业专项经费项目(201301066)

摘　　要：运用马斯京根法进行河道洪水演算时,通常存在上断面及区间入流的预报误差及马斯京根法本身的误差。这些误差都会降低河道下断面洪水的预报精度。为此,基于系统反演理论,构建三种误差的反演方程并进行误差校正,以提高河道下断面洪水预报精度。淮河王家坝—润河集河段初步应用的实例表明,该方法可以提高马斯京根法的预报精度。When the Muskingum method is used in river channel flood routing, generally there are three kinds of errors, namely the forecasting errors of opper section and intervening inflow, and the error of Muskingum method itself. The existence of these errors will reduce the forecast accuracy of flood in the lower section of river. Based on the theory of system inversion, the inversion equation of above errors is constructed and the error correction is made to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. The preliminary application results in Wangjiaba-Runheji Section in Huaihe River show that this method can improve the prediction accuracy of Muskingum method.

关 键 词：动力系统反演 马斯京根法 预报误差 误差校正 淮河 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]