人口预测在PADIS-INT软件中的应用——MORTPAK、Spectrum和PADIS-INT比较分析  

Applications of Population Projection in the PADIS-INT:Comparative Study on MORTPAK,Spectrum and PADIS-INT

作　　者：翟振武[1] 李龙[1] 陈佳鞠[1] 陈卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心

出　　处：《人口研究》2017年第6期84-97,共14页Population Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目"特征;规律与前景-老龄社会的人口学基础研究"(批准号:71490731)的资助

摘　　要：队列要素方法目前在人口预测实践中应用极为广泛,而在人口预测软件中对其加以具体运用时,由于涉及算法设定、程序编制上的诸多细节问题,预测结果的精准程度可能会受到影响。文章选定主流的人口预测软件,使用瑞典的实际人口数据,开展对比性人口预测试验,考察不同软件对队列要素方法的实现状况。研究发现,MORTPAK、Spectrum和PADIS-INT人口预测软件由5岁组起始人口插分出的单岁组结果具有一致性、是相近的,根据预测结果推算出的存活比差别甚微,出生人口的预测结果也没有显示很大差异。PADIS-INT已经达到国际主流人口预测软件所应具有的预测水准,而考虑到其功能设置更加丰富、参数导入更加灵活、结果呈现更加细致的优势,它目前更加适用于具有应用性质的详细人口预测。Cohort-component method, the most widely used method in population projections, involves the issues of calculation and the details of programming when applied to the population projection software, which could impact the accuracy of projection results. Taking the mainstream projection software programs into account and based on the actual population data of Sweden, this paper, conducting comparative popu- lation projection tests, examines the applications of cohort-component method in the three population projec- tion software programs including MORTPAK, Spectrum （DemProj） and PADIS-INT. The results show that the results of single-year age group obtained by the interpolation of five-year age group of the initial population are consistent and close between the three software programs; there is little difference in survival ratios cal- culated on the basis of the projection results of the three software programs; in the birth population projec- tion, the three software programs don＇t show great difference either. PADIS-INT has reached the projection level that international mainstream population projection software should have. Since PADIS-INT supports ric- her functionality especially in the parameter selling and the presentation of projection results, it is more suit- able for a detailed population projection with application properties.

关 键 词：队列要素方法 人口预测软件 MORTPAK SPECTRUM PADIS-INT 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]