基于流程仿真的物资接收系统可靠性预计方法  

Reliability Prediction Method of Ship Supplies Receive System Based on Flow Simulation

作　　者：胡斌[1] 狄鹏[1] 刘刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学,武汉430033

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2017年第11期14-18,共5页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71401171);海军工程大学自然科学基金(HGDQNEQJJ15017);军队院校2110工程基金资助项目

摘　　要：针对船舶物资接收时间计算的问题,新增加了对设备发生故障的考虑,通过引入接收时间可靠性的概念,将其转换为船舶物资接收系统的可靠性预计问题。为了解决上述可靠性预计问题,提出了基于流程仿真的系统可靠性预计方法。分析了物资接收系统的工作流程,依据工作流程实现了仿真程序,用蒙特卡洛法对物资接收系统的可靠性进行了求解,并分析了设备不同的可靠性水平对物资接收系统可靠性的影响。仿真结果表明,增加了对设备故障的考虑后,对物资接收时间的估计更加接近实际;基于流程仿真的系统可靠性预计方法的模型更容易理解,所得结论更加具体。Aiming at the calculation of time for receiving the ship supplies, the consideration of equipment failures is added, and the calculation problem is converted to by introducing the concept of receive time reliability. To solve the problem of reliability prediction, system reliability prediction method based on flow simulation is proposed. Firstly, the work flow of supplies receive system is analyzed. Secondly, the simulation of the work flow is achieved. Finally, the reliability of supplies receive system is solved by Monte Carlo method, and the influence of different reliability levels of equipment to supplies receive system. The simulation results indicate that the assessment of supplies receiving time is closer to the actual after the equipment failures is considered. The model of the reliability prediction method based on flow simulation is easier to understand and the conclusion is more specific.

关 键 词：可靠性预计 流程仿真 物资接收系统 船舶备航阶段 

分 类 号：TP14[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]