合作竞争条件下R&D项目投资决策分析  

The R&D Project Investment Decision Analysis under Coopetition Condition

作　　者：曹博洋 姜明辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家电网北京经济技术研究院,北京102209 [2]哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150006

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2017年第11期111-119,共9页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70871030)

摘　　要：R&D项目的成功会为高新技术企业带来巨大收益,但是其研发过程中存在着技术风险、商业风险和突发风险等所带来的多种不确定性。为了应对这些不确定性,一些高新技术企业往往结成追求联盟整体利益最大化的成本共享联盟来进行R&D项目投资,然而由于不进行技术共享并争夺研发成功后的收益,联盟中的企业又会在合作的同时进行竞争,这就需要企业对R&D项目的估值非常的精确,以便在合作竞争条件下做出收益最大的最优投资决策。市场中两个合作竞争的高新技术企业各自拥有四种投资决策:成为市场先行者或跟随者,立刻与另一企业共同投资,与另一企业共同选择先等待时机再进行投资。本文以这两个高新技术企业为例,利用欧式期权理论量化了多种不确定性,建立相应的R&D项目投资决策数学模型,对R&D项目的投资时机和决策收益进行评估。当成本共享联盟整体收益最大时,得到的两个高新技术企业做出的投资决策即为在合作竞争条件下R&D项目投资中各自的最优投资决策,最后通过Shapley值的计算可对联盟中企业各自的收益进行合理分配。The successful R＆D projects will bring huge profit for the high-tech enterprises, but there are some uncertainties from technical risk, economic risk and sudden risks in research and development process. In order to cope with the uncertainties, some enterprises have to make a cost sharing alliance in R＆D project investment, but they will compete in cooperation for more benefits. It needs to be very accurate in valuation of the projects in the coopetition condition before investment. There are four kinds of investment decisions for two high-tech enterprises under coopetition condition： first-mover, follower, investment together at once, and investment after waiting. By utilizing the European option value to quantify the uncertainties, this paper establishes the corre- sponding R＆D projects investment decision payoff mathematics model which can assess the timing and payoffs of the investment. When the cost sharing alliance has maximum profit, the investment decisions will be the optimal investment decisions for the two enterprises. After Shapley value calculation, the two high-tech enterprises could obtain their own profit from the for R＆D project in coopetition.

关 键 词：合作竞争 最优投资决策 实物期权 不确定性 

分 类 号：O224[理学—运筹学与控制论]