我国海上通道安全评价及政策建议  

Safety Evaluation of China's Sea Lines of Communication

作　　者：李晶[1] 吕靖[1] 蒋永雷[1] 李宝德 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《中国软科学》2017年第11期8-17,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划基金(16YJAZH030);国家自然科学基金(71473023)

摘　　要：全面评价海上通道安全是海上通道安全保障工作的基础。本文基于海上通道安全威胁特点设计评价指标体系,构建因子分析-双因素评价模型,综合评价我国海上通道安全状况。结果显示美非通道和欧洲通道较为脆弱,进一步分析发现这两条海上通道主要安全威胁来自通道外部环境。进而提出了保障我国海上通道安全的政策建议。In order to ensure the safety of sea lines of communication,the security situation of the sea lines of communication must be evaluated. Based on the analysis of influencing factors of security threats,the safety evaluation index system of china＇s sea lines of communication was established. With the help of a factor analysis method-two factor theory based evaluation model and internal and external data collection,the evaluation results show Europe and AmericaAfrica sea lines of communication are terrible. Based on the results,several suggestions which will promote the security of China＇s Sea Lines of Communication are provided.

关 键 词：海上通道 安全评价 因子分析 双因素模型 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]