单因子生长模型在杨树生长预测及良种选育中的应用  

Application of single factor growth model in poplar growth prediction and breeding cultivation

作　　者：吴敏[1] 汤玉喜[1] 吴立勋[1] 唐洁[1] 李永进[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省林业科学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《湖南林业科技》2017年第6期30-35,共6页Hunan Forestry Science & Technology

基　　金：湖南省林业科技计划项目"杨树优良家系子代无性系选育"(XLK201603)

摘　　要：为缩短杨树优良无性系选育的栽培试验年限,在对已有10年主伐期无性系试验林调查数据基础上,采用单因子生长模型,对各无性系分别用不同年龄模型模拟其胸径生长过程。结果表明:无性系总体第10年胸径预测值,在不同拟合年龄模型间无显著性差异,但偏差相对值有极显著差异;拟合实测年限减少,预测偏差增大。无性系4年生以上单因子生长模型与第10年生长预测偏差在9.5%以下,序位排列比较稳定;在前10序位中、尤其在前3序位中,与实测序位吻合度高。按生长量序位选优法,4年生模型的预测序位及胸径预测值可作无性选优的产量依据。In order to shorten the period of breeding cultivation of superior clones of poplar, based on the experimental forest survey data of previous 10 years felling period poplar clones, the DBH growth process growth the clones in different age were simulated by the single factor model. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the DBH prediction value of the clones in tenth years, but there was a significant difference in the relative value of the deviation. The number of fitting years decreased and the prediction deviation increased. The single factor growth model of clones of more than 4-years-old and tenth years growth prediction deviation is below 9.5% with relatively stable order. In the first 10 order, especially in the first 3 order in simulation is a high degree of agreement with the measured order. According to the growth order optimization method, prediction order and DBH of 4-year-old model prediction value can be selected according to the yield of superior clones.

关 键 词：单因子生长模型 生长预测 拟合偏差 产量序位 杨树无性系 

分 类 号：S792.11[农业科学—林木遗传育种]