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机构地区:[1]中国人民银行调查统计司 [2]中国人民银行武汉分行
出 处:《金融评论》2017年第6期109-122,共14页Chinese Review of Financial Studies
基 金:国家社科基金面上项目"新常态下的货币政策转型问题研究"(项目编号:15BJY157)的阶段性成果
摘 要:在较大的经济下行压力下,基础设施投资是地方政府稳增长的主要着力点。近年来,无论是政策倾斜还是资金流动都呈现出一种从工业制造业向基础设施领域转移的趋势,这种经济社会结构的变化可能对我国经济增长的动力和长期效率产生影响。本文对基础设施投资经济效率的相关文献进行了综述。主要关注基础设施投资影响经济增长的机制和效率,以及基础设施投资本身的决策机制两个方面。基础设施投资对经济增长的影响主要体现在长期的效率改善上,但在一些特定情况下也会由于虹吸作用、投资瓶颈、挤出效应以及市场失灵等因素对经济增长有负面影响。另一方面,值得关注的是基础设施投资的决策并非完全来自经济因素,很多时候也受体制因素的影响。Accelerating infrastructure investment is the focus of local government's stable growth rate in the face of the significant economic downward pressure. In recent years,we see both the policy preference and flow ofcapital from manufacturing to infrastructure. Obviously,the economic structure adjustment will have a serious impact on Chinese economic growth impetus and long-term efficiency. This paper reviews the relevant literature of infrastructure investment efficiency at home and abroad. We display the attacks on two core problems: how the infrastructure investment influences the economic growth and how the governments make decisions about infrastructure investment. Specifically,the effect of infrastructure investment to economic growth mainly reflects on the long-term efficiency improvement while the negative influence can also appear sometimes because of the siphoning effect,investment bottleneck,crowding-out effect or market failure. On the other hand,both the economic and political factors influence the investment decision. The political factors play a more important role because of the performance competition among local governments. Moreover,the land-based fiscal mode and the local government financing vehicles create conditions for expanding infrastructure investment. But the extension of rent-seeking space and the accumulation of government debts caused by them need more attention.
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