投资控制下中国产业结构调整的碳治理模拟  

A simulation of China's carbon governance under industrial restructuring by investment control

作　　者：顾高翔[1] 王铮[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学人口研究所,上海200241 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [3]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241

出　　处：《地理研究》2017年第11期2225-2238,共14页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家重大研究计划项目(2012CB955800);国家自然科学基金项目(41501130)

摘　　要：针对日益严峻的碳减排形势,对高能耗产业进行投资控制,加速产业结构升级是中国实现减排目标的重要途径。采用经济—气候集成评估模型CIECIA,对产业结构自然进化的减排作用进行预测,以此为基础对投资控制措施的减排效果进行研究,评估了投资结余分配的碳治理效果。结果显示:高能耗部门的GDP占比在中国的产业结构进化过程中大幅下降,但其减排作用有限;投资控制具有显著的减排效果,加速中国的产业转型和升级,但对经济的负面影响不容忽视;由投资控制措施造成的资本流出使得以高能耗部门为主导的俄罗斯受益最大;使用投资结余提高第三产业投入并投资研发创新,是中国实施投资控制措施下保持经济增长、降低减排损失、实现减排目标的有效手段。For the growing challenge of international carbon emission reduction, to control the investments of the energy-intensive industries to accelerate the industrial structure upgrading is an important way to achieve carbon reduction targets of China. In this study, a climaticeconomic integrated assessment model named CIECIA was applied. CIECIA mainly comprises a multi-country-sector general equilibrium model as its economic core and a global carbon cycle system. A stochastic technological shock mode driven by RD is also adopted in this model to depict the endogenous mechanism of technological progress. Based on this model, the carbon reductions of countries by the natural industrial evolution were predicted, and the carbon reduction effects of the industrial restructuring by investment control measures of China and their economic impacts on different countries were studied, as well as the carbon governance of investment balance distributions among sectors. The results show that despite significant decline of the GDP shares of energy-intensive sectors in the industrial structure, the carbon reductions of China by the natural industrial evolution in future are still very limited. In the baseline scenario, the cumulative carbon reduction contributed by industrial structure change of China between 2007 and 2050 is only 17%. Investment controls for energy-intensive sectors in China have significant effects on carbon reductions, and also accelerate the industrial transformation and upgrading. In the three scenarios, the GDP shares of energy-intensive sectors decline sharply, leading to significant carbon emission reductions. Under Scenario 1,the carbon emission peak of China occurs in 2029, and the carbon emissions of China directly decrease from 2016 in scenarios 2 and 3. However, the investment control is negative to China＇s economic development, and the outflow of investments benefit other countries in turn,especially Russia, which takes energy-intensive sectors as its leading industries. In Scenario 3,the cumulative

关 键 词：产业结构 投资控制 碳治理 投资分配 技术进步 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]