中国城乡居民养老保险体系的数学模型研究  

Research on the Mathematical Model of Old-age Insurance System for Urban and Rural Residents in China

作　　者：钟诗韵 李勇[1] 唐杰 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《江西科技师范大学学报》2017年第5期52-58,共7页Journal of Jiangxi Science & Technology Normal University

摘　　要：针对可持续的中国城乡居民养老保险体系的研究问题,分别建立养老金收入、支出的宏观数学模型,使用归类分析的方法,将养老保险收入分为社会统筹、个人账户、新农保以及财政补贴收入等五部分,将养老保险支出分为社会统筹、个人账户、新农保支出等四部分,分别求出各部分函数模型再累加便得到养老金收入、支出的宏观数学模型。并建立预测模型估计未来20年的养老金缺口情况,使用MATLAB软件编程求解,判断养老金处于缺口的情况将会持续到何时。Aiming at the research of the sustainable urban and rural pension system in China,the macro mathematical models of pension income and expenditure are set up separately.We use the method of categorical analysis to divide the income of old-age insurance income into four parts：social planning,personal account,new agricultural insurance and financial subsidy,and the expenditure of old-age insurance.And we divide the expenditure of old-age insurance into three parts：social planning,personal account and new agricultural insurance.The macro mathematical models of pension income and expenditure are obtained through figuring out and adding the function models of various parts.The pension gap in the next 20 years is estimated through establishing the forecast model.The MATLAB software programming is used to determine how long the pension shortfall will last.

关 键 词：养老保险体系 养老金收入 养老金支出 养老金缺口 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]