城镇化演进对资源环境的需求和影响预测分析  

The Forecast Analysis on the Effect of Urbanization Process on Resources and Environment

作　　者：王勇[1] 俞海[1] 张永亮[1] 赵子君[1] 张燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]环境保护部环境与经济政策研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2017年第11期I0001-I0005,共5页Urban Development Studies

摘　　要：未来一段时期,依然快速的城镇化进程势必会影响资源需求和环境压力。采用定额法和动态回归方程分别预测不同情境下未来城镇化进程对土地、水资源需求以及多种污染物排放的影响。研究发现:即使按照相对集约的方案,2020年、2025年和2030年我国新增城镇人口的建设用地需求量分别为9403km^2、17185km^2和24370km^2,新增城镇人口的生活用水总量分别为每年70亿m^3、128亿m^3和182亿m^3。在污染物排放上,相对集约的城镇化能够抑制人均废水和CO_2的上升趋势,加快人均SO_2、烟粉尘排放量和固体废弃物产生量的下降趋势,而对人均化学需氧量排放的影响并不明显。新一轮城镇化过程中环境风险会发生改变,但环境风险强度并非因此而减弱。In the next period of time, the rapid urbanization process is bound to affect the demand for resources and the pressures on environment. This paper uses the quota method and the dynamic regression equation to predict the impact of future urbanization process on land, water demand and various pollutant discharges. The study finds that even in the case of relatively intensive programs, China＇s demand for construction land for the new urban population in 2020, 2025 and 2030 is 9,403 square kilometers, 17,185 square kilometers and 24,370 square kilometers and the total urban water consumption of the new urban population is about 7 billion cubic meters, 12.8 billion cubic meters and 18.2 billion cubic meters. As for the discharge of pollutants, the relatively intensive urbanization can inhibit the rising trend of per capita wastewater and carbon dioxide, accelerate the down trend of the per capita sulfur dioxide, smoke dust emissions and solid waste, while it has no obvious impact on per capita chemical oxygen demand emissions. During the new round of urbanization, the environmental risk will change, but the intensity of environmental risk will not be weakened.

关 键 词：城镇化 资源需求 污染物排放 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济]