2016/17榨季国内外食糖市场回顾与2017/18榨季展望  

Domestic and Foreign Sugar Markets in 2016/17 Crushing Season and Their Prospects for 2017/18 Crushing Season

作　　者：刘晓雪[1] 李江坤 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学,北京100048

出　　处：《农业展望》2017年第10期4-13,共10页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部;财政部现代农业(糖料)产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-17-11B);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097);国际农业研究体系"主要国家食糖市场稳定政策跟踪研究"

摘　　要：2016/17榨季,中国食糖市场进入恢复性增产阶段,共产食糖928.82万t,同比增长6.74%。受全球食糖供给短缺、国内消费需求平稳、进口限制加大、打击走私效果凸显、抛储有限等因素影响,国际糖价回升和国内产不足需状况支撑国内价格企稳回升。2017年1—8月,食糖价格外弱内稳使得价差扩大,加上贸易保障措施作用进口量下降20.8%至167万t。国际市场受益于天气利好,亚洲各国增产促使产需缺口逐渐收窄,抑制国际糖价上涨。展望后市,在2017/18榨季国内外基本面情况差异明显,国内食糖供给有所回升,贸易保障措施控制进口节奏背景下,国内食糖市场进入调整阶段,产不足需状况一时难以改善,将支撑国内糖价,国内食糖市场或进入库存消化阶段。国际糖市由于增产和需求低迷,2017/18榨季或将出现供应过剩,价格弱势运行可能较大,较低库存为国际糖价运行提供一定的支撑。但后期仍需关注国内食糖进口、走私糖打击效果、抛储节奏和巴西、泰国、印度等主产国产量变化情况及天气因素影响。In 2016/17 crushing season,China＇s sugar market has recovered and its production increased.The total sugar production was 9.288 2 million tons,increased by 6.74 percent.Due to the short supply of sugar in the world market,stable domestic consumer demand,more strict import restriction,remarkable effect of cracking down on smuggling,and the limited launch of state reserves,international sugar price picked up and domestic supply was insufficient,which led the domestic sugar price to be stable and increasing.From January to August in 2017,the weak sugar price in the foreign market combined with the steady sugar price in the domestic market resulted in big price gap of domestic and foreign sugar,as well as the safeguard measures,which stimulated imports to decrease by 20.8 percent to 1.67 million tons.Benefiting from sound weather conditions and increased production in Asia,the gap between supply and demand in the international market became narrow,which helped to curb the rising of international sugar price.Looking ahead,in 2017/18 crushing season,distinct differences will be found between domestic and international fundamentals,domestic sugar supply will rise again,safeguard measures will control the pace of imports.At the background of above,domestic sugar market will enter the adjustment stage,the situation of demand exceeding supply will not be improved in the near term,which will support domestic sugar price,and thus the domestic sugar market might be in the stage of clearing inventory.International sugar market might see an oversupply of sugar in the next crushing season due to increased production and sluggish demand.The sugar price is likely to run at a low level,and the relatively low inventories will provide some support for the international sugar price.However,in future,we still need to pay attention to the impact of such factors as domestic sugar imports,the effect of preventing sugar smuggling,the frequency of releasing sugar from state reserves,the changes in production in major producing countries s

关 键 词：食糖 价格 价差 产量 进出口 展望 供给短缺 贸易保障措施 

分 类 号：F416.82[经济管理—产业经济]