资源型城市产业结构升级与就业的动态关系研究——基于52个地级市资源型城市面板VAR模型  

INTERACTION BETWEEN INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE UPGRADE AND EMPLOYMENT IN RESOURCES-BASED CITIES BASED ON PANEL VAR MODEL IN 52 RESOURCES-BASED CITIES

作　　者：魏小芳 赵连荣[1] 李莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学人文经管学院,北京100083

出　　处：《资源与产业》2017年第5期1-8,共8页Resources & Industries

摘　　要：以2000—2015年全国52个地级市资源型城市的面板数据为依据,分析其产业结构偏离度,并建立VAR模型,对产业结构升级系数与就业的面板平稳性检验、协整性检验、格兰杰因果关系、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。结果表明:成长型、成熟型、衰退型和再生型资源型城市产业结构偏离程度情况各异,其中,产业结构协调性最优为衰退型城市,其他依次是成熟型城市、再生型城市,成长型城市,同时,资源型城市的协调性不及全国。另外,不同类型的资源型城市产业结构升级程度与就业具有不同的动态关系。模型结果显示,所有资源型城市的产业结构升级对就业没有显著的贡献,而就业状况的改善会影响产业结构升级程度。This paper uses their panel data of China＇s 52 resources-based cities in 2000--2015 to analyze their industrial structure deviation degree and establishes VAR model, which is used to study stability test, co-integration test, Graner causality, impulse response and variance decomposition panel data between industrial structure upgrade coefficient and employment. Results show that their industrial structure deviation degrees vary among developing, mature, declining and renewing resources-based cities, of which the best coordinated resources-based city is declining city, followed by mature, renewing and developing cities. The coordination of resources-based cities falls behind the average. A dynamic relation between structural upgrade and employment varies with different types of resources-based cities. VAR mode result shows that industrial structure upgrades of all resources-based cities make little contribution to employment, but employment improvement will influence industrial structure upgrade.

关 键 词：资源型城市 产业结构升级 VAR模型 就业 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F249.2