天然气产业发展的协调性标度及优化研究  

COORDINATION SCALE AND OPTIMIZATION OF NATURAL GAS DEVELOPMENT

作　　者：曹峰[1] 孙仁金[1] 郭肖月 章卫文 李喆 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学工商管理学院,北京102249 [2]浙江浙能天然气运行有限公司,浙江杭州310052

出　　处：《资源与产业》2017年第5期45-55,共11页Resources & Industries

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(17BGL014)

摘　　要：基于天然气产业的系统结构特征尺度,运用非线性规划方法,建立了天然气产业协调性标度及优化方法,并以中国天然气产业发展的协调性标度为例,提出了天然气产业协调性标度及优化方案,并对天然气产业协调性标度的合理性、敏感性进行对比分析,最后提出天然气产业协调性标度优化方法的建议。结果发现:2014年左右天然气产业协调性水平为良、天然气产业变异系数为差、月高峰系数为优、城市应急系数为差、县城应急系数为良;优化后的天然气产业协调性标度与中等标度区间指标标度值相比,在大的标度区间下天然气产业协调性标度值的敏感性增加0.15;与小的标度区间比较,天然气产业协调性各指标标度值的敏感性增加更多,天然气产业协调性标度值的敏感性增加0.198,表明该方案起到了较好的预期度量效果,在大的标度区间下,天然气产业协调性标度最敏感。建议将基于天然气产业协调性标度优化方案作为未来中国天然气产业发展规划的协调性影响评价的参考,该方案不仅有助于实现准确度量天然气产业协调性的目标,而且对于敏感反映天然气产业协调性变化等受天然气产业利用规划和开发、建设活动影响的测度指标都具有重要的现实意义。This paper, based on natural gas＇s system structure characteristic scale, uses non-linear planning to establish natural gas coordination scale and optimization, discusses China＇s natural gas coordination scale and optimization, and analyzes its rationality and sensitivity, and presents suggestions in optimizing natural gas coordination scale. Natural gas coordination level is good, variable coefficient is poor, month peak coefficient is excellent, urban emergency coefficient is poor, county emergency coefficient is good in 2014. Compared with moderate scale, the optimized natural gas coordination scale rises 0. 15 in sensitivity in large scale range, and rises more, up to 0. 198 in small scale range, indicating a good anticipation. Natural gas coordination scale is most sensitive in large scale range. This paper proposes the optimized natural gas coordination scale plan be the basis in evaluating China＇s natural gas industrial development and planning. This optimized plan can not only precisely scale natural gas coordination, but also be of significance in sensitively reflecting natural gas coordination change, which is influenced by natural gas use planning, development and construction.

关 键 词：天然气产业 协调性 标度 优化研究 系统结构 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]