英国脱欧对“16+1合作”的影响探究  

Research on the effects of Brexit on the "16+1" cooperation

作　　者：任再萍[1] 毕诚 

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学,上海200336

出　　处：《上海经济》2017年第6期69-79,共11页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：外交部欧洲司中国-中东欧国家合作秘书处"中国-中东欧国家关系研究基金"2017年度课题阶段性成果;课题名称"英国脱欧进程中‘16+1合作’面临的利与弊";项目编号:KT201709

摘　　要：本文旨在分析英国脱欧对"16+1合作"带来的贸易与金融等方面的影响。文章基于英国与中东欧国家以及英国与中国之间的经贸关系现状,通过评估分析英国脱欧进程中面临的各种情景,归纳出其对"16+1合作"带来的机遇与挑战。文章总结出脱欧谈判将给中英、中欧自贸协定等博弈中带来的新变量。同时脱欧引发的价值链和贸易整合将给中国企业"走出去"带来新的窗口期与机会。另外英国可能失去进入欧洲单一市场的地位给"16+1合作"和"一带一路"倡议执行所带来的风险亟需管控。This paper aims to investigate the effect of Brexit on the “16＋1 cooperation”, particularly on trade and investment. Starting from the economic and trade relationship between UK and CEE and between UK and China, the paper estimates various scenarios during Brexit and evaluates the opportunities and challenges for the “16＋1 cooperation”. The paper concludes that Brexit brings new situation for the potential China-UK FTA and China-EU FTA. Meanwhile changes in the value chain and trade integration may create new window period for Chinese enterprises to internationalize. Also, the risks regarding losing entry to EU single market for the UK should be managed carefully in the “16＋1 cooperation” and OBOR.

关 键 词：英国脱欧 16+1合作 “-带-路”倡议 

分 类 号：F062.6[经济管理—政治经济学]