城市低碳经济发展路径的系统动力学模拟  

System Dynamics Simulation of Urban Low Carbon Economy Development Path

作　　者：李昊[1] 张静[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学计算机学院,吉林四平136000

出　　处：《吉林师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第1期108-112,共5页Journal of Jilin Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：四平市科技发展计划项目(2014060)

摘　　要：面临全球变暖和环境污染问题,发展低碳经济成为城市可持续发展的必由之路.本文从经济、能源、环境三方面,对城市低碳经济发展进行系统动力学建模,并以吉林省四平市为例进行仿真模拟,考虑在现有因素影响下的经济发展模式,基于已有的低碳经济综合评价指标,从产业结构、能源消耗以及经济发展等方面,研究城市从高碳经济逐渐步入中碳经济,并向低碳经济发展的可行路径.针对具体城市,提出调整产业结构,提高污染治理能力,从源头上控制大气污染,是城市可持续发展的有效对策.Facing the problem of global warming and environmental pollution,the development of low carbon economy has become the only way for the sustainable development of the city.In this paper, the system dynamics model of the development of low carbon economy in city was studied from the three aspects of economy,energy and environment, and the influence of the mode of economic development was considered when the Siping City of Jilin Province as an example for simulation based on the existing low carbon economy evaluation index.And from the aspects of industrial structure, energy consumption and economic development, the city from high carbon economy gradually into carbon economy was studied.It is a feasible path to the development of low carbon economy, and it is proposed to that is an effective countermeasure for the sustainable development of the specific city by adjusting the industrial structure, improving the ability of pollution control and controlling the air pollution from the source.

关 键 词：系统动力学 低碳经济 发展路径 

分 类 号：N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学]