综合模型法土壤墒情诊断模型  

Integrated diagnostic model of soil moisture

作　　者：米长虹[1] 郑宏艳[1] 侯显达 侯彦林[1,2] 刘书田 黄治平[1] 丁健 王铄今[2] 

机构地区：[1]农业部环境保护科研监测所,天津300191 [2]北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室(广西师范学院),广西地表过程与智能模拟重点实验室(广西师范学院),南宁530001

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2017年第12期3381-3391,共11页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：天津市科技支撑计划(15ZCZDNC00700);“中国农业科学院科技创新工程”(2016-cxgc-hyl);广西科技开发项目(14125008-2-24);全国农业技术推广中心节水处项目(2016-hx-hyl-5)

摘　　要：本文介绍了将平衡法、统计法、差减统计法、比值统计法、间隔天数统计法、移动统计法6个独立模型综合应用的墒情综合模型法的原理和方法,并应用7个省23个县87个监测点2012—2014年的数据建模,应用2015年的数据进行了验证。结果表明:综合模型诊断和预测合格率高,为97%以上。综合模型的优点:6个独立模型的参数在不同气候、下垫面和管理措施下的取值不同,因此,6个独立模型即使按点统计也不通用;而在同一次预测时,6个模型预测结果中总有一个预测精度较高的结果,这个结果与时段降水量和初始土壤含水量之和高度相关;通过对6个模型的适应性优选后,从概率上选择水分来源数量对应的预测结果。The principle and method of integrated diagnostic model of soil moisture were intro- duced, which synthesizes balance diagnostic model, statistical diagnostic model, subtractive sta- tistical diagnostic model, ratio statistical diagnostic model, interval days statistics diagnostic mod- el and moving statistics diagnostic model. The model was established by using the data of 87 mo- nitoring sites in 23 counties in 7 provinces during the period of 2012-2014, and was validated by using the data of 2015. The results showed that the integrated model had high qualification rate （〉97%） in diagnosis and prediction. The advantages of integrated diagnostic model are embodied as ： （ 1 ） the parameters of the six independent models are different under different climates, un- derlying surface and management measures. Therefore, the six independent models are not uni- versal even by site-specific statistics. （2） In the same prediction, one of the prediction results of the six models always has relatively high accuracy. This result is highly correlated with the sum of the precipitation in different periods and the initial soil water content. After adaptive optimization of the six models, the predicted result is selected according to the sum of water income by the probability.

关 键 词：土壤含水量 降水量 时段模型 逐日模型 验证 

分 类 号：S152.7[农业科学—土壤学]