中国碳排放与发展战略关系研究  

Study on the Relationship between Carbon Emission and Development Strategy in China

作　　者：冯彦[1] 汤旭 祝凌云[1] 孙博[1] 张大红[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《软科学》2017年第12期34-38,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：国家林业局2014年林业重大问题调研课题(ZDWT201415)

摘　　要：基于环境库兹涅茨曲线以及新结构经济学理论,采用2003~2013年各省面板数据,通过空间计量模型,实证分析了中国人均碳排放和TCI指数之间的关系。结果表明:我国环境库兹涅茨曲线呈倒N型;Moran's I显示我国省际人均碳排放存在空间集聚正效应,并呈现先升高后降低的趋势,局部空间自相关结果表明H-H型和L-L型为主要集聚类型;地区违背比较优势优先发展工业的战略将导致地区碳排放水平的增加。应按照比较优势与后发优势发展中国经济,不仅可以促进经济的持续增长,还可以减少二氧化碳的排放量。Based on the EKC and new structure economics theory, the paper uses the provincial panel data in 2003 -2013 and studies the relation between Per capita carbon emissions and TCI index, by measuring model of spatial and non - spatial panel data econometric model. The results show that the Environmental Kuznets Curve shows a back - N style; Moran＇s I shows provincial per capita carbon emissions presents positive effects of spatial agglomeration, declined first and ascended. And local spatial autocorrelation results show that H - H type and L - L type are the main types of agglomeration industry priority development strategy which defys comparative advantage will result in an increase in emissions of carbon. So developing economy through comparative advantages and late -development advantage, not only promote the sustained growth of Chinese economy, but also can reduce the emission of carbon dioxide.

关 键 词：TCI指数 碳排放 环境库兹涅茨曲线 空间计量模型 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济]