地方债务视角下西南地区四省市财政可持续性研究——基于面板数据的协整检验  

A Study on the Fiscal Sustainability of Four Provinces and Cities in Southwest China from the Perspective of Local Debt:Co-integration Test Based on Panel Data

作　　者：李燕[1] 陈金皇 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财税学院,北京100081

出　　处：《南京审计大学学报》2017年第6期35-43,共9页Journal of Nanjing Audit University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD022);中央财经大学重大科研培育项目;中财-鹏元投融资研究所研究项目

摘　　要：随着经济社会的快速发展,我国地方政府债务规模也增长较快,引起了社会对地方债务风险及财政可持续性的担忧。为分析西南地区主要省市地方政府债务对其财政运行的影响,选取相关指标进行横向对比,并对西南地区各省市财政运行的面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明:西南地区各省市财政运行存在弱的可持续性,虽然地方债还未对财政运行造成显著不利影响,但弱的财政可持续性表明该区域财政运行存在一定风险,政府应注意防范,同时,应加强对新增债务和存量债务的控制和管理,提升财政运行的效率,改善财政运行透明度,建立科学的财政管理体制,提高财政风险识别和管理能力等,以实现财政的可持续发展。With the rapid development of economy and society,the scale of local government debt has also increased rapidly,which has aroused social concern about local debt risk and fiscal sustainability. In order to analyze the influence of local government debt on the fiscal operation of Southwest China,this paper selects the relevant indicators to carry out horizontal comparison,and makes an empirical analysis on the panel data of the fiscal operation of the provinces and cities in Southwest China. The results show that there is a weak sustainability in the fiscal operation of the provinces and cities in the southwest. Although the local debt has not yet had a significant adverse impact on the fiscal operation,the weak fiscal sustainability indicates that there is a certain risk in the fiscal operation of the region,so the government should pay attention to prevention. This paper also puts forward measures to strengthen the control and management of new debt and stock debt,improve the efficiency of fiscal operation and the transparency of fiscal operation,establish a scientific fiscal management system,and improve the financial risk identification and management capacity and other countermeasures to realize the sustainable development of finance.

关 键 词：西南地区 地方债务 财政可持续发展 财政监督 国家治理 财政规则 财政债务 财政收入 政府债务 地方财政 城市财政 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学]