宁波市大气可吸入颗粒物对人群死亡短期影响的归因风险评估  

Short-term risk assessment on mortality due to ambient particulate matter in Ningbo City

作　　者：贺天锋[1] 黄婧[2] 李国星[2] 谷少华[1] 张涛[1] 李辉[1] 许国章[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁波市疾病预防控制中心,浙江宁波315010 [2]北京大学公共卫生学院,北京100191

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2017年第11期857-862,共6页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：浙江省医药卫生科技计划项目(2014KYA202);宁波市科技计划项目(2014C50027);宁波市科技惠民项目(2015C50056);浙江省公益技术应用研究计划(2016C33194)

摘　　要：目的评估宁波市大气可吸入颗粒物(PM10)短期暴露造成人群死亡的归因风险。方法收集宁波市2011—2015年人群死亡、空气污染和气象资料,利用时间序列研究方法和分布滞后非线性模型,分析PM10短期暴露造成人群死亡的超额危险度、归因死亡人数和人群归因分值。结果 PM10短期浓度升高与人群死亡数增加相关,效应存在明显的滞后性和持续性,日均浓度每升高10μg/m3,总死亡累积4 d(Lag0~3)的超额危险度为0.35%(95%CI:0.16%~0.53%)。宁波市2011—2015年归因于PM10短期暴露的总死亡人数为3 972例(95%CI:1 877~6 032),人群归因分值为2.15%(95%CI:1.02%~3.27%)。呼吸系统疾病对PM10更为敏感,其归因死亡人数和人群归因分值分别为1 323例(95%CI:619~1 990)和4.68%(95%CI:2.19%~7.03%);女性和高年龄组人群的归因风险分别高于男性和低年龄组。如果将PM10日均浓度控制在150μg/m3和100μg/m3限值以内,人群归因风险将分别下降25.45%和53.07%。结论 PM10浓度变化对健康有较大的影响,应立即采用有效的控制措施。Objective To estimate the short-term risk on mortality attributable to ambient inhalable particulate matter(PM10) in Ningbo City. Methods The daily data on mortality,air pollution and meteorological factors were collected from 2011 to 2015 in Ningbo City. A time series study using a distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM) was used to estimate the excess risk,attributable number and fraction for the short-term effect of PM10 on mortality. Results The study showed that short-term exposure of ambient particulate matters were associated with an increased risk of daily mortality,and the effect had lags and persistence. A 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10 in lag 0 ~ 3 days was associated with a 0. 35%(95% CI:0. 16% ~ 0. 53%) increase in total mortality. From 2011 to 2015,the attributable number due to short-term exposure of PM10 was 3972(95% CI: 1 877 ~ 6 032) for total mortality in Ningbo city,while the attributable fraction was 2. 15%(95% CI: 1. 02% ~ 3. 27%). Compared with other diseases,more attributable deaths in respiratory mortality,with a fraction of 4. 68%(95% CI: 2. 19% ~ 7. 03%)corresponding to 1 323 deaths(95% CI: 619-1 990). The attributable risk for female and elderly were more than that for male and young people,respectively. If the daily concentration of PM10 limits in 150μg/m3 and 100 μg/m3,its corresponding attribute risk will decrease 25. 45% and 53. 07%. Conclusion There is significant health impact attributable to short-term PM10 exposure. More efforts should be devoted to reduction of air pollution immediately.

关 键 词：空气污染 颗粒物 归因风险 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R122.26[医药卫生—环境卫生学]