基于随机集理论的电力系统运行风险评估  

Power System Operational Risk Assessment Based on Random Set Theory

作　　者：侯赞 刘宝柱[1] 张爽 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市昌平区102206 [2]国网宁夏电力公司电力科学研究院,宁夏回族自治区银川市750002

出　　处：《电网技术》2017年第12期3757-3763,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0900501)~~

摘　　要：针对电力系统中故障特征和运行信息的不确定性,提出了基于随机集理论的不确定信息的表示与建模方法。该方法考虑元件故障发生的不确定性和负荷波动的随机性,将描述电网元件参数和节点负荷信息的变量转换为其随机集形式。基于随机集扩展准则,通过区间潮流计算将参数的不确定性映射到风险指标的不确定性,并利用随机集的信任测度和似真测度构造风险指标的上下累积概率分布函数。基于证据理论的随机集描述,利用Dempster-Shafer证据组合规则对所有系统状态下获得的基本概率分配(basic probability assignment,BPA)进行融合,获得系统风险水平的一致性描述。IEEE 39算例系统的计算结果证明了该方法的合理性。In view of uncertainty of fault characteristics and operation information in power system,a representation and modeling method of uncertain information based on random set theory is proposed in this paper.This method takes into account uncertainty of component fault and randomness of load fluctuation,and the variables describing grid component parameters and node load information are transformed into a random set form.Based on extension principles,uncertainty of parameters is mapped to uncertainty of risk index through interval power flow calculation,and the upper and lower cumulative probability distribution functions of the risk index are constructed using belief measure and plausibility measure.According to random set description of evidence reasoning,fusion of basic probability assignment（BPA） obtained by all contingencies is conducted,and comprehensive description of system risk level is acquired.Analysis on IEEE-39 system shows that the proposed method is reasonable.

关 键 词：电力系统 不确定性信息 随机集 概率分布 风险评估 DEMPSTER-SHAFER证据理论 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]