中国煤层气规模化开发的政策情景仿真  

Scenario analysis of large-scale coalbed methane development in China

作　　者：吴巧生[1,2] 赵天宇 周娜[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境经济研究中心,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年第12期14-20,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"页岩气和煤层气开发利用的能源安全效益;环境效益和其他社会效益评估"(批准号:13AZD078)

摘　　要：中国煤层气资源具有进一步勘探开发的潜力,是未来很长一段时间内常规天然气的现实补充能源。从保障能源安全的角度来看,中国发展煤层气对于优化能源结构,缓解能源供求矛盾以及实现国民经济的可持续发展具有重大的现实意义。本文运用系统动力学理论与方法,构建了从量补贴提升情景、页岩气竞争情境和国际油价影响情景,模拟和预测了不同情景下的中国煤层气规模化开发情况,结果显示:(1)煤层气从量补贴额度的提升使煤层气利用量与地面抽采量以年均6%—8%的速度提升。(2)页岩气的商业化开发对煤层气造成了一定的减产效应,但并未对其规模化开发产生恶性影响,二者的共同开发能够有效减小中国常规天然气供需缺口。(3)热值转换定价下的煤层气规模化开发受国际油价与美元汇率的双重影响,极大限制煤层气规模化开发的稳定性,削弱其对国家能源安全的支持作用,不利于中国煤层气规模化开发有序健康的进行;国际油价波动影响定价下中国煤层气规模化开发进程较为平稳,但煤层气规模化开发初期井口气价较低,导致了煤层气规模化开发的速度大幅放缓。针对上述研究结论,为保证中国煤层气规模化开发进程的平稳与高效,本文给出以下建议:(1)提升补贴水平,建立复合补贴机制;(2)依法规制,合理开发利用煤层气。Coalbed methane(CBM),which has great expectation on its further exploration and development,will be the available supplement of the conventional gas for China in the future. On the perspective of national energy security,large-scale CBM development is of practical significance to optimize Chinese national energy structure,to relieve the contradiction between energy supply and demand,and to realize the sustainable development of national economy. Based on the system dynamics theory,this paper simulated and predicted large-scale CBM development in China under three types of established situations,including the one of subsidies by amount improving situation,and the shale gas development competition situation,and the international oil prices situation. The results indicate that,firstly,the promotion of CBM subsidies by amount contributed to a 6% to 8% promotion of both consumption and ground pumping of CBM each year. Secondly,the commercial exploitation of shale gas has impacted CBM production to some extent,but no malignant effects have been done to its large-scale development,the common development of the two can effectively narrow the gap between supply and demand of conventional natural gas. Thirdly,the development of CBM resources under the pricing of calorific value transformation is under the dual influences of both international oil prices and the dollar exchange rate. They have greatly restricted the stability of CBM and weakened its functioning as the support of national energy security,and have even harmed the orderly and healthy development of China's CBM scale. Moreover,the development of CBM in China is relatively stable under the pricing of fluctuation influence,but the initial price of wellhead gas of CBM scale development is lower,which results in a sharp slowdown in the CBM development of large scale. In the light of the research conclusions above,and to ensure the smooth and efficient development of China's CBM scale development process,the following suggestions are given out in this paper: the sub

关 键 词：煤层气 规模化开发 模拟仿真 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]