山东省企业融资需求综合指数研究与应用  

Research and Application of Funds Requirement Index of Shandong Province

作　　者：赵杉[1] 刘晓东 关健[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行济南分行,山东济南250021 [2]中国人民银行菏泽市中心支行,山东菏泽274000

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2017年第11期54-60,共7页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：本文依托山东省企业财务数据调查、企业家问卷调查、银行家问卷调查的数据结果和企业实际运营数据,研究运用动态因子分析方法编制企业融资需求综合指数(FRI)。同时,从22个行业中选取高耗能行业和高新技术行业,基于PVAR模型对影响融资需求指数的宏、微观因素进行分离解析。结果显示,高耗能行业短期融资需求具有顺周期性,中期受经济周期影响较小,高新技术行业中短期融资需求受经济周期的影响均不显著。从流动性角度看,短期流动性增加不会对高耗能行业和高新技术行业融资需求产生显著影响,但中期流动性增加可以刺激高耗能行业融资需求提升,同时降低高新技术行业的融资意愿。In this paper, we rely on the results of investigations, using Dynamic Factor Analysis Method to work out Funds Requirement Index （FRI）, in order to reflect the corporate financing needs, monitor market supply and de- mand changes and improve policy effectiveness. Also, we choose high energy consumption industry and high technolo- gy industry from 22 industries, based on PVAR model to analyze the effect of macro factors and micro factors. In the short term, the financing demand of high energy consumption industry is cyclical, and in the medium term, econom- ic cycle has less impact. In regard to high technology industry, economic cycle has less impact on either short-term or medium-term financing needs. From the perspective of liquidity, the increase in medium-term liquidity can stimulate the financing needs of high energy consumption industry enterprises, at the same time, it can reduce the financing willingness of high technology industry enterprises.

关 键 词：动态因子分析 企业融资需求综合指数 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.42[经济管理—金融学]