人感染H7N9型禽流感空间分布研究  

Spatial distribution of human H7N9 avian influenza

作　　者：王青芳 靳祯 张文义[4] 

机构地区：[1]山西大学复杂系统研究所,太原030006 [2]山西大学数学科学学院 [3]疾病防控的数学技术与大数据分析山西省重点实验室 [4]中国人民解放军疾病预防控制所

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2017年第6期16-19,共4页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(11331009);山西省重点实验室(201705D111006);山西省科技创新团队建设(201705D15111172)

摘　　要：目的以2013年3月至2017年4月华中、华南、华东地区13个省份人感染H7N9禽流感病例为研究对象,探索其在流行季中的空间分布特征。方法基于Arcgis 10.2软件,应用方向分布、空间自相关、空间回归分析方法研究人感染H7N9禽流感的发病热点区域和影响因素。结果在五波流行中,研究区域的人感染H7N9病例分布都存在聚集性。高低聚类表明聚集类型为发病高值的聚集。热点分析进一步探测到高值聚集主要集中在东部和南部地区,包括上海市、浙江省的湖州市、嘉兴市、杭州市、绍兴市、金华市以及江苏省的苏州市、无锡市、常州市、南通市。方向分布研究发现病例分布具有方向性,呈现"东北-西南"的空间模式,且有扩散趋势。空间回归分析显示病例数和经度、纬度、农贸市场个数都具有相关性,系数分别为0.886 911、-0.343 833、0.055 767。结论人感染H7N9型禽流感病例分布总体呈现"东北-西南"的扩散模式,且存在高值聚集的热点区。Objective To explore the spatial distribution characteristics of human H7N9 avian influenza cases in Centra1,South and East China from March 2013 to April 2017. Methods Based on Arcgis10. 2 software, the method of direction distribution, spatia1 autocorrelation and spatial regression analysis were applied to study the hotspot area and influence factors of human H7N9 avian influenza. Results The spatial aggregation distribution of human H7N9 avian influenza cases wee observed in the study area. Hig h/ Low Clustering analysis indicated that the type of aggregation was highly clustered. The hotspot analysis showed that the hot spot area focused on the east and south,including Shanghai, Huzhou, J iaxing, Hangzhou, Shaoxing, J in h u a, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, Nantong. The“ northeast-southwest” spatial pattern was observed by the tool of direction distribution. The cases showed directionality and a spreading tendency. By applying spatial regression analysis,we found that the number of cases was related to the longitude, la t i tu d e , and the number of agricultural market. The coefficients were 0. 886 911、- 0. 343 8 3 3、 0. 055 767 respectively. Conclusion The human H7N9 avian influenza cases had a“northeast-southwest”spread pattern,and had highly clustered hot spots.

关 键 词：H7N9 方向分布 空间自相关 空间回归分析 

分 类 号：R511[医药卫生—内科学]