当代青年女性晚婚对低生育水平的影响  

The Impact of Contemporary Young Women's Late Marriage on Low Fertility Level

作　　者：郭志刚 田思钰[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国社会发展研究中心 [2]北京大学社会学系

出　　处：《青年研究》2017年第6期16-25,共10页Youth Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目"中国低生育率研究"(12JJD840005)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：中国进入低生育水平时期以来,人口调查数据显示生育率仍在下降,不断刷新最低记录。然而,这些结果总被视为调查漏报导致的统计虚幻,人口宣传、管理和决策时参照的则是另一套基于间接估计之上的生育率口径。两者之间的严重脱节引发一系列混乱和争论。根据大量人口数据分析发现,青年女性晚婚趋势与生育率下降密切相关,而且标准化比较显示,晚婚因素所导致的生育率下降幅度很大。晚婚是理解生育率下降并达到极低水平的一个不可忽略的重要因素。The census data reveals that the fertility rate keeps declining and refreshing the lowest record repeatedly since China entered the period of low fertility level. However,these results are always regarded as the statistical illusion caused by missing reports. For population propaganda,management and decision making,another statistics of fertility rate based on indirect estimation is taken as the reference. Hence,the serious disconnection between the two might lead to a series of confusion and controversy. Based on the analysis of mass population data,this paper finds that the trend towards young women's late marriage has close correlation with the decline in fertility rate. Meanwhile,the standardized comparison reveals that the factor of late marriage could lead to the great decline of fertility rate. Therefore,in order to understand why the fertility rate decline to a very low level,late marriage is an important factor that couldn't be ignored.

关 键 词：总和生育率 未婚比例 标准化比较 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理]