利用再分析与探空资料对0℃层高度和地面气温变化特征及其相关性的分析  

Characteristic and Correlation Between Surface Temperature and 0 ℃ Isotherm Height Derived from ERA-Interim Reanalysis and Radiosonde Data

作　　者：曹杨 陈洪滨[1,3] 李军[1] 苏德斌 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所中层大气和全球环境探测重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [4]成都信息工程大学电子工程学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《高原气象》2017年第6期1608-1618,共11页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：气象行业专项项目(GYHY201106046);国家自然科学基金项目(41275039;41375039);北京市自然科学基金项目(8141002);国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2014AA06A512)

摘　　要：利用北京多年ERA-Interim再分析资料和探空观测资料分析地面气温及0℃层高度特征,对比再分析资料和探空资料的差异,并利用北京和寿县资料分析0℃层高度与地面气温的相关性,拟合0℃层高度与地面气温的线性关系,另外,利用未参与公式拟合的观测资料进行验证。结果表明:地面气温与0℃层高度存在明显季节变化;与探空观测值相比,无论是全年还是分季节,再分析资料的地面气温和0℃层高度值都偏低,地面气温平均偏低2℃,0℃层高度平均偏低200 m;再分析与探空资料的相关性较好,相关系数都大于0.89;地面气温与0℃层高度的变化趋势一致,再分析资料和观测资料地面气温与0℃层高度的相关系数均大于0.9,20:00大于08:00(北京时),都通过了0.01的显著水平统计检验,且观测资料获得的线性关系优于再分析资料;线性拟合得到的地面气温与0℃层高度的线性关系,可为天气雷达判别0℃层和预报降水等应用提供辅助信息。In this study,The correlation coefficient（ R）,bias（ Bias）,and mean absolute deviation（ Mad） were calculated between the surface temperature and 0 ℃ isotherm height by using the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and station observation data of Beijing. The correlation of surface temperature and 0 ℃ isotherm height was analyzed.The fitting linear relationship of surface temperature and 0 ℃ isotherm height was obtained,and the usefulness of the relationship also was proved by using other set of observation data. The results indicate that there is a good correlation between ERA-Interim reanalysis data and site observation data for both surface temperature and 0 ℃isotherm height in four seasons and 10 years studied with R larger than 0. 89; R values for the surface temperature and 0 ℃ isotherm height from the reanalysis data are little lower than those from the site observation data and the bias are mostly less than 2 ℃ and 200 m. The surface temperature and 0 ℃ isotherm height exhibit the similar characteristics of seasonal variation with R larger than 0. 8,both from the reanalysis data and observation data,and R at 20： 00（ Beijing time） is slightly larger than that at 08： 00,which all have passed the statistically significant level at 0. 01. the correlation coefficient R between the calculated and observed 0 ℃ isotherm height is very high with the acceptably small Bias,and Mad. So,0 ℃ isotherm height calculated with the relationship between the surface temperature and 0 ℃ isotherm height can be applied to other practical use.

关 键 词：ERA-Interim再分析资料 探空观测资料 0℃层高度 地面气温 相关性分析 

分 类 号：P412.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]