1972—2013年河北省大气环境容量的气候变化特征分析  

Climate Change Characteristics of Atmospheric Environmental Capacity in Hebei Province during 1972-2013

作　　者：许启慧[1] 范引琪[1] 井元元 杜康云 张金龙[1] 刘金平[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省气候中心,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《高原气象》2017年第6期1682-1692,共11页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201527);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506014);河北省气象局科研项目(16ky05)

摘　　要：基于河北省79个气象站地面风速、云量和降水资料,采用A值法计算了相应行政区域的大气环境容量,分析了其气候分布特征和长期变化趋势;用MK和MT法对全省大气环境总容量做了突变检验,通过EOF分解对大气容量时空分布特征进行了分析。结果表明,大气容量的年、季气候平均值的地理分布特征基本一致,均表现为张家口和承德西北部较高,中南部平原普遍低于周围山区和东部沿海区域,一年中从春到冬大气容量呈现由高到低的变化特征;1972-2013年全省大部分地区年、季大气容量呈显著下降趋势;各季大气总容量存在明显突变点,春、夏、秋、冬季分别为1983,1998,1998和1988年;EOF分析得出,年、季前两个模态反映出1972-2013年大气容量时空分布的主要格局,其中第1模态的方差贡献率占43%以上,反映出全省各区域的同相变化,对应的时间系数则表明全省大气容量存在年代际减弱的变化趋势。Based on wind,cloud and precipitation data of 79 meteorological stations over the Hebei province,the atmospheric environmental capacity（ AEC） was calculated by applying A value method,climate change characteristics and trends of AEC were analyzed. The time points of abrupt change for AEC was tested by Mann-Kendall and Moving-T technique. Based on EOF analysis,the temporal and spatial variation features of AEC were studied. Results showthat the climatic value of seasonal spatial distribution characteristics of AEC is relatively consistent,northwest of Zhangjiakou and Chengde area is significantly greater than the other parts,and Hebei Piedmont is lower than the surrounding,climatic value of AEC changed from high to lowthroughout the year.From 1972 to 2013,the annual and seasonal AEC have been observably decreasing in most part of Hebei and the abrupt change point is spring in 1983,summer and autumn both in 1998,winter in 1988. The first 2 eigenvector of EOF reflect the most characteristics of annual and seasonal spatio-temporal distribution of AEC from 1972 to 2013,the first eigenvector of contribution rate is more than 43%,reflects holistic characteristics in the whole province,the corresponding time coefficient indicates that there is an interdecadal weakening trend of AEC.

关 键 词：河北省 大气环境容量 时空分布特征 

分 类 号：P404[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]