未破裂的房地产泡沫是否损害经济增长——基于日本泡沫经济的历史考察  

Will the Real-Estate Bubble That Has not Bursted Damage the Long-Term Economic Growth: An Analysis of the History of Japan's Bubble Economy

作　　者：许祥云[1] 李立恒[1] 谢静[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《日本学刊》2017年第6期113-133,共21页Japanese Studies

摘　　要：近年来中国房地产价格持续上涨,不断引发人们对房地产泡沫的担忧。基于日本泡沫经济的相关资料,围绕房地产泡沫上升时期日本经济主体行为的变化对长期经济增长的影响进行考察后发现:房地产泡沫会诱导企业"脱实向虚",提升银行系统风险,挤占研发投入,扭曲产业结构。上述因素将共同引致未来生产效率的提升出现停滞,并最终损害长期经济增长。即便不发生泡沫破裂,房地产泡沫的长期存在仍会削弱经济发展潜力。政府不仅需要防止房地产泡沫过度膨胀或迅速崩溃,更需要逐步消化现存泡沫,为实现经济长期可持续增长的目标清除隐患。In the recent years, the rising of real - estate price has led to great concern for the real - estate bubble. Based on the data of Japan＇ s bubble economy, the article discusses how the changes of participants＇ behaviors in Japanese economy during the rise of real - estate bubble period influence Japan＇ s long - term economic growth. Japan＇ s experience shows that the real - estate bubble will induce enterprises to shift to the virtual economy from the real economy, increase the systematic risk of banks, occupy the R＆D investment and distort the industrial structure, which will lead to stagnation of productivity, and damage the long - term economic growth. Therefore, even if bubble collapse doesn＇ t happen, the long - term existence of real - estate bubble will also weaken the potential of future economic development. The govemment should not only prevent excessive expansion of real - estate bubble or take precautions against the bubble collapse, but also try to digest the existing bubble gradually and eliminate the potential risks against the long -term sustainable economic growth.

关 键 词：房地产 泡沫经济 长期经济增长 日本经验 

分 类 号：F131.3[经济管理—世界经济]