产业结构变迁与劳动份额变化——基于要素替代弹性和偏向技术进步视角  

Industrial Structure Change and Labor Share Evolution——Based on Factors' Alternative Elasticity and Orientation of Technical Progress

作　　者：龚敏[1] 辛明辉 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心,教授福建厦门361005

出　　处：《学术月刊》2017年第12期90-102,共13页Academic Monthly

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的再拓展"(17JJD790014);教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目"供给侧结构改革的理论基础与政策思路研究"(16JZD016);国家社会科学基金青年项目"供需均衡视角下的中国潜在经济增长率测算及增长因素分析"(16CJL011)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文基于一般要素增强型CES生产函数,使用变系数面板模型分别估计了中国三次产业的要素替代弹性时间序列和技术进步方向;进一步利用模型结果,对不同产业阶段的劳动份额变化进行了一致分析。研究发现:(1)三次产业要素替代弹性的差异会引发劳动力跨产业流动,通过改变相对产出影响总体劳动份额;(2)要素替代弹性的增长会直接影响各产业内部劳动份额的变化;(3)目前,一产的技术进步表现出资本偏向,二产和三产表现为劳动偏向,使三次产业内劳动份额分别下降、上升、上升;(4)在以上三种效应的叠加作用下,对应工业化、去工业化及产业结构稳定三个阶段,中国劳动份额将整体呈现出"先降-后升-再降"的变化趋势。This paper uses CES production function with general factor-augmenting technical progress to estimate the elasticity of substitution series and direction of technological progress by variable parameter panel data model. Then we conduct a consistent analysis about the labor share at different industrial stages using results of model. Research findings： （1）The difference in the factors＇ alternative elasticity of the three industries may cause labor to flow across industries, which can affect the overall labor share by changing the relative output; （2）The growth of alternative elasticity will directly affect the change in the share of labor within each industry; （3）At present, the technological progress of the primary industry shows capital bias, but the technological progress of the secondary and tertiary industries shows labor bias, which make the labor share within the three industries decrease, rise, and rise. （4） Under the influence of these three effects, China＇s labor share shows a trend of ＂falling-rising-falling＂ corresponding to three stages of industrialization, de-industrialization and industrial structure stability.

关 键 词：劳动份额 产业结构 要素替代弹性 偏向技术进步 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]