人民币国际化进程中我国货币政策独立性的SD仿真分析  

The SD simulation of China's monetary policy independence in the process of RMB internationalization

作　　者：卢有红 彭迪云[2] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学管理学院,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《南昌大学学报（理科版）》2017年第4期393-402,共10页Journal of Nanchang University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJL051);江西省高校哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(ZDGG201207);江西发展升级推进长江经济带建设协同创新中心项目(2100000409);2013年度南昌大学应用经济学省级重点学科招标课题(无编号)

摘　　要：随着人民币国际化的推进,跨境人民币结算规模迅速扩大,我国目前已形成跨境资本流动双渠道:跨境美元流动和跨境人民币流动。新的资本流动结构可能对我国"资本有限流动+汇率有限浮动+货币政策独立"的三元目标组合产生冲击,并影响我国货币政策的独立性。本文运用系统动力学流率基本入树逐步仿真的建模和分析方法,构建包含人民币国际化因素的仿真模型,分析了人民币国际化进程中,资本流动、人民币汇率稳定和货币政策独立性之间的相互作用,以及人民币国际化推进对各目标的影响。仿真结果显示,在人民币国际化进程中,"三元悖论"依然成立,而且人民币国际化程度提高会降低我国货币政策的独立性。因此,我国应选择合理的金融改革路径,并保持货币政策的独立性和有效性,稳步推进人民币国际化。With the development of RMB internationalization,the scale of cross-border RMB flows expanded rapidly.China has formed dual-channel of cross-border capital flows：cross-border U.S.dollar flows and cross-border RMB flows.The new structure of capital flows may have an impact on the combination of three policy target of＂limited capital flows＋limited exchange rate flexibility＋ monetary policy independence＂ in China,and it will affect the independence of China＇s monetary policy.In this dissertationwe constructed the simulation model including the cross-border RMB flow factor,analyzed the interaction between the capital flow,the stability of RMB exchange rate and the independence of monetary policy in the process of RMB internationalization is analyzed,and explored the influence of RMB internationalization on each objectiveusing the modeling and analysis method of the system dynamics flow into the tree step by step.The simulation results showed that＂the puzzlement of trilenama＂remained true under the condition of crossborder RMB in large-scale flow,and with the advancing of theRMB internationalization,the independence of China＇s monetary policy was reduced.Therefore,China should choose a reasonable path of financial reform,and maintain the independence and effectiveness of monetary policy.Meanwhile,China should carry forward theRMBinternationalizationsteadily.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 三元悖论 货币政策独立性 流率基本入树 

分 类 号：TP333[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]