我国人口老龄化的经济效应——来自省级面板数据的证据  

The Economic Effect of Population Aging in China --Analysis of Panel Data Based on Provincial Level

作　　者：李中秋[1] 马文武 李梦凡[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北经贸大学金融学院,河北石家庄050061 [2]四川大学马克思主义学院,四川成都611000 [3]西南财经大学经济学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《人口与发展》2017年第6期26-35,45,共11页Population and Development

基　　金：本文为河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究青年拔尖人才项目“中国人口老龄化的经济效应研究”中期成果（项目编号：BJ2017088,项目主持人：李中秋）.

摘　　要：中国的人口老龄化对经济增长具有负效应,利用索洛经济增长理论和柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,构建一个包含了人口老龄化指标的模型,分析证明负效应的存在性。使用省级面板数据,估算人口老龄化对经济增长的弹性,结果显示其负作用显著,并且人口老龄化在这期间对经济增长的贡献明显,但远远低于传统的投入要素的贡献水平,说明以往的研究高估了老龄化的作用,区域数据的回归结果及其分析证明,不同发展阶段、经济增长对要素依赖程度的不同会影响老龄化负效应的大小。China＇ s population aging has a negative effect on economic growth. Used Solow＇ s economic growth theory and Cobb -Douglas production function this article constructed a model that includes the indicators of population aging to analysis the existence of negative effects. And using provincial panel data to estimate the elasticity of population aging for economic growth ,The results showed the negative effect was significant. During this period The aging population has sig- nificantly contribution to economic growth, but lower than the contribution of traditional input elements. This means the previous studies overestimate the role of aging. The regression results of regional data and its analysis show that in different development stage, the degree of economic growth depends on factors is different, which will affect the size of the negative effects of aging.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 经济增长 经济效应 

分 类 号：F069.9[经济管理—政治经济学]