特朗普政府的贸易政策——基于美国国内贸易政治视角的分析  

A Study of U.S. Trade Policy in the Trump Era:From the Perspective of U.S. Domestic Trade Politics

作　　者：周俊 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学东吴商学院

出　　处：《国际展望》2017年第6期38-56,共19页Global Review

摘　　要：根据美国国内贸易政治的菱形博弈分析框架,美国贸易政策是总统、议会、利益集团和公众四方互动的结果。总结特朗普政府的贸易政策理念并分析其所面临的来自公众、议会和利益集团的约束,可以发现主张保护贸易的全球化受害者们是特朗普的民意基本盘,因此特朗普政府绝不会轻易放弃重要的贸易保护主张;而共和党人同时控制参众两院的现状以及支持贸易自由化的利益集团不断壮大的趋势,决定了特朗普政府不至于陷入贸易保护主义的泥潭。展望未来,特朗普政府的对华贸易政策将以结果为导向,凡是能促进"公平贸易"从而改善工人就业的手段都可能被采用。特朗普政府将中国列为其贸易保护主义的头号目标,正在并将继续以打击中国的"不公平贸易"为名,依据国内贸易法规或者采用"议题联动"的方式,试图在一定期限内实现具体目标。中国应在洞悉美国国内贸易政治的基础上,坚决维护自身正当权益,积极维护全球自由贸易。By constructing a quartet game framework to illustrate U.S. domestic trade politics,this paper holds that the Trump administration's trade policy is the result of the quartet game among the President,Congress,interest groups,and the public.Then,by analyzing the administration's trade philosophy and the constraints it confronts,this author believes the Trump administration will never give up its core protectionist policy easily,or Trump will lose his deglobalization supporters.However,considering the Republican control over both the House and the Senate and increasing interest groups in favor of trade liberalization,the Trump Administration will not be mired in extreme trade protectionism.The last section predicts U.S.trade policy towards China and proposes China's countering measures.The Trump Administration is outcome-oriented,so any measure that stimulates 'fair trade' and increases domestic employment will likely be adopted.Its trade protectionism mainly targets at China.By adopting domestic trade legislation or taking issue linkage,Trump Administration tries to fight against China's so-called 'unfair' trade practices to realize its protectionist agenda.China should have a good understanding of U.S.domestic trade politics,and resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.

关 键 词：美国 贸易政治 菱形博弈 利益集团 公平贸易 

分 类 号：F757.120[经济管理—国际贸易]