省际人口迁移趋势预测及特点分析  

Prediction of Provincial Population Migration Trend and Characteristics Analysis

作　　者：马少楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学公共管理学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第5期117-122,共6页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University(Social Sciences)

摘　　要：在城镇化背景下,人口城乡、省际迁移的理论和实证研究成为国内外学者持续关注的热点。以自然人口预测模型为基础,根据第五次人口普查和第六次人口普查相关数据可以得到广东、北京、上海、浙江、安徽、河南、湖南和江西8省市的人口迁移率。通过8省市的人口迁移率对这些省市2010~2100年的人口迁移结构趋势进行预测,发现：人口迁移表现出长远积累性和选择变化性;迁入地区逐渐集中,迁出地区逐渐分散;各省市人口迁移在2050~2070年均表现出先增后减趋势,其中,北京和上海人口迁入最多且女性迁移人数与男性持平或高于男性,而浙江和广东人口迁移趋势发生逆转。In this paper,a natural population forecast model is established and correspondent population mobility of Guangdong,Beijing,Shanghai,Zhejiang,Anhui,Henan,Hunan and Jiangxi calculated according to demographic data from the＂Fifth National Census＂and＂Sixth National Census＂.Prediction of the trend and characteristics of population migration in the above-mentioned provinces in2010- 2100 shows that the population migration will cumulate over a long term and feature variation in the destinations chosen. The population immigration and emigration respectively show a trend of concentration and dispersion. The population migration in the provinces in 2050- 2070 will first increase and then decrease. Among them,Beijing and Shanghai has the largest number of migrants with number of females equivalent to that of males or higher number of females,and Zhejiang and Guangdong population migration show a trend of reversal.

关 键 词：省际人口迁移 人口预测模型 第五次人口普查 实证研究 省际迁移 女性迁移 省市 城镇化 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]