玛河灌区参考作物蒸发蒸腾量时空分布特征与成因分析  

Temporal-Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Causes of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Manasi River Irrigated Area

作　　者：王萌萌[1,2] 吕廷波 何新林[1,2] 辛明亮 曹玉斌[1,2] WANG Meng-meng;LU Ting-bo;HE Xin-lin;XIN Ming-liang;CAO Yu-bin(College of Water Conservancy ＆ Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, Xinjiang, China;Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation of Xinjiang Bingtuan, Shihezi 832000, Xinjiang, China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832000 [2]现代节水灌溉兵团重点实验室,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2017年第12期44-47,共4页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51669030)

摘　　要：根据玛纳斯河流域中游平原灌区(玛河灌区)24个标准气象站逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith公式计算了各站逐日ET0,利用经验贝叶斯Kriging插值法、距平分析及偏相关分析等方法分析了玛河灌区ET0时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:玛河灌区年ET0均值为972 mm,呈现东北高、西南低的分布规律;近56年ET0呈增加趋势(0.51 mm/a),通过第一主震荡周期预测2014年后玛河灌区ET0值将会是偏高期;偏相关分析表明风速是影响该灌区ET0的主要原因。Based on the daily observation data of 24 meteorological stations in the Manasi River irrigated area, the daily reference evapotranspiration （ETo ） value of each station is calculated with the Penman-Monteith equation, then the spatial-temporal variation patterns of reference crop evapotranspiration is analyzed with the methods of empirical Bayes Kriging interpolation method and Anomaly Method. In the meantime, the dominant factors of the ETo variations in the Manasi River irrigated area are analyzed by partial correlational analysis. The results show that： annual reference crop evapotranspiration of Manasi River irrigated area is 972 mm, which reveals that the ETo values are higher in northeast than that in southwest; the reference crop evapotranspiration in Manasi River irrigated area has increased during the last 56 years with the rate of 0.51 mm/a. The first main oscillation cycle shows that the ETo value will be on the high side after 2014. From the perspective of the ETo change, wind speed was the dominant factors for the change of ETo in Manasi River irrigated area.

关 键 词：参考作物蒸发蒸腾量 Penman—Monteith公式 Krging法 玛河灌区 

分 类 号：S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学]