技术进步与二氧化碳排放强度:理论与实证分析  

A theoretical and empirical analysis of technical progress and CO_2 emission intensity

作　　者：张兵兵[1] 朱晶[1] 全晓云 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《科研管理》2017年第12期41-48,共8页Science Research Management

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金第58批面上项目:国际能源价格波动对农产品价格波动的传导效应研究(2015M581819;2015-2017);中央高校科研业务经费创新项目:基于动态SBM模型的工业污染;环境治理与城市能耗效率测算(SKCX2016001;2016-2018);中央高校科研业务经费面上项目:扩张性财政政策背景下国有企业市场势力测度及福利效应变化研究(SKTS2016005;2016-2017);江苏省优势学科项目(PAPD);江苏省粮食安全研究中心资助

摘　　要：本文首先通过构建的理论分析框架,对技术进步影响二氧化碳排放强度的作用机制进行了解析。随后,运用DEA-Malmquist方法获取了中国37个行业的技术进步指数,并运用面板模型估计方法,实证分析技术进步对CO_2排放强度的影响,结果显示:针对全行业层面,技术进步有利于CO_2排放强度的降低;fdi规模的扩大也会降低CO_2排放强度,行业层面"污染天堂"假说并不成立;而固定资产投资规模的扩大和快速推进的工业化进程均会导致CO_2排放强度的上升;针对分行业层面,技术进步对CO_2排放强度的影响具有异质性;高能源效率行业的技术进步有利于CO_2排放强度的降低;低能源效率行业的技术进步则会导致CO_2排放强度的上升。产生异质性的原因可能在于,不同能源效率行业对初始技术进步的路径选择差异以及对已选择初始技术进步的路径依赖。This paper first analyzes the effect of technology progress on CO2 emission intensity through a theoretical model. Then it computes the technical progressive index decomposed from DEA-Malmquist method of 37 industries in China. Besides,it uses the panel data model to study the effect of technology progress on CO2 emission intensity. The results reveal that for the whole sample,technical progress is the effective measure to reduce CO2 emission intensity and FDI could also reduce CO2 emission intensity significantly. Therefore,the pollution haven hypothesis does not exist at industry levels and the expansion of fixed assets investment and speeded industrialization could raise CO2 emission intensity significantly. At the industry level,the effect of technology progress on CO2 emission intensity varies： Technology progress of industry with high energy efficiency could significantly reduce CO2 emission intensity while industry with low energy efficiency would increase CO2 emission intensity. This heterogeneity may be explained by the difference in the choice of original technical progress path by industries with different energy efficiency and their dependence on the selected original technical progress path.

关 键 词：技术进步 CO2排放强度 行业层面 路径依赖 动态面板 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]