生产性服务业能成为中国经济高质量增长新动能吗  

Can the Productive Service Industry Become New Momentum for China's Economic Growth

作　　者：李平[1] 付一夫 张艳芳[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所 [2]苏宁金融研究院宏观经济研究中心 [3]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2017年第12期5-21,共17页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目"创新驱动发展的分析与测算"(批准号10620161001005);国家软科学面上项目"产业结构转换;技术创新与中国经济增长潜力提升"(批准号2014GXS4B073)

摘　　要：近年来中国服务业规模不断增大,在国民经济中的份额已经超过50%,其中生产性服务业比重接近1/3。随着中国步入工业化后期阶段,服务业以及生产性服务业比重仍会继续提高。因此,在中国经济发展进入新常态后,作为国民经济主体的服务业发展能否支撑中国经济中高速增长备受关注。本文拟从经济增长的动力机制出发,通过对全要素生产率增长率(TFP指数)的测算与分解,探索生产性服务业的部门技术进步与产业结构转换对全要素生产率乃至宏观经济增长的影响程度,从而试图找到生产性服务业可以作为未来中国经济增长新动能的证据。结果显示:生产性服务业较高的技术进步水平以及对资本要素和劳动要素较强的集聚能力,可以提升宏观经济总体全要素生产率,进而推动中国经济的可持续和高质量增长,完全可以成为新常态下中国经济高质量增长的新动能。In recent years, the scale of service industry has been continuously increasing, the share of which in the national economy has exceeded 50%, and the proportion of producer service sector is close to one third. With the arrival of the post-industrial period, the proportion of service industry and producer service will continue to rise. Therefore, in the new normal, as the mainstay of the national economy, the fact that whether the development of service industry can support the rapid growth of China＇s economy has drawn much attention. Based on the dynamic mechanism of economic growth, this paper calculates and decomposes the total factor productivity growth rate （TFP index）, in order to explore the impact of technological progress and industrial structure transformation on overall macro -economic productivity and macroeconomie growth, by which to prove the significance of producer service industry as the new momentum of China＇s economic growth in the future. The results show that due to the higher level of technological progress and the strong gathering of capital and labor, the producer service industry could enhance the overall macro-economic total factor productivity, and then promote the sustainable growth and high-quality development of national economy, so it can well be the new momentum for the high-quality growth of the Chinese economy under the New Normal.

关 键 词：生产性服务业 增长核算 TFP指数分解 新动能 高质量增长 

分 类 号：F121[经济管理—世界经济]