降雨型滑坡垂直位移方向率及其位移监测预警判据研究  

The direction ratio of vertical displacement for rainfall-induced landslides and its early warning criterion

作　　者：贺可强[1,2] 郭栋[2] 张朋[2] 郭璐[2] 张国栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [2]青岛理工大学地质环境与效应研究中心,山东青岛266033

出　　处：《岩土力学》2017年第12期3649-3659,3669,共12页Rock and Soil Mechanics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.41372297);三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室(三峡大学)开放基金(No.2017KDZ03);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(No.20113721110002);山东省自然科学基金项目(No.ZR2011DL002);山东省蓝色经济区工程建设与安全协同创新中心资助项目~~

摘　　要：针对降雨型滑坡位移量预测参数失稳判据的局限和不足,并根据滑坡全息论的基本原理,提出和确定了滑坡垂直位移方向率预测参数,且指出该参数是边坡稳定性演化分析与评价的一个有效位移动力参数,具有位移量或位移速率不可替代的评价和预测作用。同时,系统分析了降雨型滑坡位移与地下水位变化规律及其相互作用关系,对该类边坡稳定性的不同演化阶段的表层垂直位移方向率形成机制与变化规律进行了弹塑性力学分析与评价,分别确定了边坡压缩稳定变形阶段和塑性失稳变形阶段的表层垂直位移方向率与其稳定性演化的定量关系,并依此运用数理统计均方差基本原理,建立了该类滑坡垂直位移方向率的整体失稳监测预警判据。最后运用新滩滑坡A_3、B_3监测点垂直位移方向率对该滑坡稳定性演化过程与失稳规律进行了后验分析与评价,其分析预测结果与边坡实际变形失稳规律基本相吻合,表明该参数在该类滑坡预测预报与监测预警中具有一定的有效性与实用性。As for the limitation of instability criterion of displacement predictive parameter in the rainfall-induced landslide and also according to the basic principle of the holographic information theory, this paper proposes a new appraisal parameter of vertical displacement direction ratio for slope stability as an effective displacement dynamic parameter in the analysis and evaluation of slope stability. It systematically analyzes the variation and relationship of displacement and groundwater in rainfall-induced landslide, and also determines the formation mechanism and variation of the surface vertical displacement direction ratio at the different stages of stability. Meanwhile, the quantitative relation of the surface vertical displacement direction ratio with the stability of landslide in the compression stage and the plastic deformation stage is explored. Based on the analysis results above, it establishes the overall instability monitoring and early warning criteria of the vertical displacement direction ratio of the landslide by using the basic principles of mathematical statistics. Finally, the posterior analysis and evaluation of the stability evolution process of the vertical displacement directional ratio are carried out by using actual data of A_3 and B_3 monitoring points of the Xintan landslide. It is found that the results of the analysis and forecast are consistent with the actual deformation instability law of the slope. It reveals that it is effective and practical for the landslide forecast and early warning.

关 键 词：降雨型滑坡 垂直位移方向率 稳定性预警判据 新滩滑坡 

分 类 号：TU42[建筑科学—岩土工程]