我国城镇化、环境污染及其风险识别  

Urbanization,Environmental Pollution and Its Risks Identification in China

作　　者：俞海[1] 王勇[1] 张永亮[1] YU Hai;WANG Yong;ZHANG Yongliang(Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]环境保护部环境与经济政策研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《环境与可持续发展》2017年第6期7-13,共7页Environment and Sustainable Development

摘　　要：快速的城镇化进程在促进经济发展的同时,也带来了巨大的能源资源消耗和环境污染。本文采用31个省份2000-2014年的面板数据,实证拟合了我国城镇化与环境污染的趋势特征,并在此基础上,进一步分析了我国城镇化进程中的主要环境风险。研究认为,当前城镇化水平对应的人均污染物排放仍处高位,随着城镇化进程的加深,部分污染物的排放量仍将持续上升,大部分中西部省份城镇化的环境风险将更为突出。未来城镇化过程中的环境风险主要表现在:一是现有针对废水、废气和固体废弃物污染的处理能力与存量环境污染治理需求仍存在较大的差距;二是刚性工业化需求带来的潜在增量环境风险,且因工业化进程的差异呈现区域分化趋势;三是产业跨区域转移将放大环境风险的空间尺度。针对工业污染物排放的预测表明,工业废气排放和固体废弃物排放将是潜在环境风险的主要来源。文章进一步从体制机制、整体格局、产业调整、环境治理和公众参与五个层面提出了降低城镇化环境风险的政策建议。Rapid urbanization process has created considerable economic benefits, however, it brought a huge energy consumption and environmental pollution at the same time. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces of China from 2000 to2014,this paper empirically fits the characteristics of urbanization and environmental pollution, and analyzes the main environmental risks in the process of urbanization in China. The study suggests that the per capita pollutant emissions are still high at the current urbanization level. With the advance of the urbanization process,some pollutant emissions will continue to rise,and the environmental risk of most central and western provinces will be more prominent. The environmental risks in the process of urbanization in the future are mainly as follows： First,there is still a big gap between the existing processing capacity and the environmental pollution control demand for waste water,waste gas and solid waste pollution. The second is the potential incremental environmental risks caused by the demand for rigid industrialization, which presents a regional differentiation trend due to the differences of industrialization process; Third,industrial cross-regional transfer will enlarge the spatial scale of environmental risk. Forecasts for industrial pollutant emissions show that the emissions of industrial pollutants and solid waste will be the major sources of potential environmental risks. In order to reduce the environmental risk of urbanization,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations from five aspects： institutional mechanism, overall pattern,industrial adjustment,environmental governance and public participation.

关 键 词：城镇化 环境污染 环境风险 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]