电动自行车交通事故严重程度影响因素分析  

Influence factors and injury severity in electric bicycles traffic crashes

作　　者：王涛 黎文皓[1] 李文勇 

机构地区：[1]桂林电子科技大学建筑与交通工程学院,广西桂林541004 [2]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第6期2080-2088,共9页Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51408145);广西自然科学基金资助项目(2014GXNSFBA118255)

摘　　要：为了分析电动自行车交通事故严重程度的主要影响因素,以广西桂林市2 365起电动自行车与机动车交通事故数据为例,从电动自行车驾驶者、机动车驾驶者、道路条件、车辆、环境、驾驶行为等6个属性中选取19个候选自变量,运用有序Logit模型估计电动自行车财产损失、受伤和死亡3种等级交通事故的分布概率,引用弹性分析定量鉴别电动自行车事故严重程度的显著影响因素,并对影响因素的作用进行了分析和讨论。显著分析表明:电动自行车驾驶者性别、年龄、交通管控方式、道路中央隔离形式、机非隔离形式、机动车类型、照明情况、事故责任方、违规行为、机动车驾驶行为、电动自行车驾驶行为等11个因素与电动自行车事故严重程度显著相关。弹性分析表明:电动自行车不按车道行驶、超速驾驶和酒后驾驶等违规行为,电动自行车左转和横穿道路,涉及货车的事故等因素的伪弹性值均大于200%,对电动自行车交通事故严重程度的影响最为显著。In order to analyze the main influence factors of electric bicycle traffic crashes,nineteen optional independent variables from six properties such as electric bike driver,motor vehicle driver,road condition,vehicle,environment and driving behavior were selected,which basing on 2365 crashes between electric bicycles and motor vehicles. The ordered logit was used to estimate the distribution probability of three injury severities of electric bicycle of death,injury and property damage. The elasticity analysis was used to quantitative determine the significant influencing factors of the injury severity of electric bicycle crashes,and the functions of influencing factors werediscussed. Significant analysis shows that eleven factors of electric bicycle driver gender,electric bicycle driver age,management style,road central isolation form,machine non-isolated form,motor vehicle type,illumination condition,responsible party,irregularities,motor vehicle driving behavior and electric bicycle driving behavior are significantly related to the severity of electric bicycle crashes. Elasticity analysis shows that the pseudo elasticities of electric bicycle drivers illegal behavior,such as changing route,speeding or drinking,the behavior of turn left or cross the road and the crashes involving truck are greater than 200%,which are the most significant factor related to the severity of electric bicycle crashes.

关 键 词：电动自行车 事故严重程度 驾驶行为 有序LOGIT模型 弹性分析 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]