山东省干旱事件对人群传染病发病影响的研究  

Study on effects of drought events on infectious diseases in Shandong province

作　　者：薛晓嘉[1] 李学文[2] 李晓梅[1] 丁国永[1] 刘起勇[3] 

机构地区：[1]泰山医学院公共卫生学院,山东泰安271016 [2]山东大学公共卫生学院,济南250012 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,北京102206

出　　处：《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》2017年第6期538-542,共5页Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金联合专项(ZR2015HL100);国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955502);山东省医药卫生科技发展计划(2016WS0605);泰安市科技发展计划(2016NS1206);泰山医学院高层次课题(2015GCC16;2016GCC05)~~

摘　　要：目的研究山东省干旱事件与人群传染病的关系,筛选干旱事件敏感性传染病。方法选取山东省济南、青岛、潍坊和泰安市辖区以及日照市莒县和滨州市惠民县作为研究现场,采用生态趋势研究识别干旱相关敏感性传染病。采用Wilcoxon秩和检验对暴露期和对照期及滞后期传染病的发病率进行粗筛,选择负二项回归模型、零膨胀负二项回归模型和零膨胀Poisson回归模型拟合干旱与粗筛传染病发病的关系。结果多因素回归模型结果显示,干旱导致阿米巴痢疾、风疹和流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)发病风险增加,其OR值及其95%CI分别为2.457(1.609～3.752)、2.206(1.436～3.388)和1.192(1.058～1.344),相应滞后期分别为3、0和1个月;而细菌性痢疾、手足口病、麻疹和恙虫病在干旱发生后其发病风险降低(OR<1),相应滞后期分别为2、2、0和3个月。结论山东省干旱相关敏感性传染病谱为细菌性痢疾、阿米巴痢疾、手足口病、麻疹、风疹、乙脑和恙虫病。Objective To understand the relationship between infectious diseases and drought events and to screen theindicative infectious diseases associated with drought in Shandong province. Methods The drought-indicative infectiousdisease was identified by ecological trend study in Jinan, Qingdao, Weifang, Taian, Juxian, and Huimin county in Shandongprovince. The Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to compare the morbidity of infectious diseases between exposure andreference periods. Then, the negative binomial regression model, the zero-expansion negative binomial regression modeland the zero-expansion Poisson regression model were applied to fit the relationship between the morbidity of infectiousdiseases and drought. Results Multivariate analysis regression models showed that the risk of amebic dysentery, measlesand Japanese encephalitis（JE） were increased after the drought（OR=2.457, 95%CI： 1.609-3.752; OR=2.206, 95%CI：1.436-3.388; OR=1.192, 95%CI： 1.058-1.344）, and the lagged periods were 3, 0, 1 months. However, the risk of bacillarydysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, measles and tsutsugamushi disease declined after the drought（OR1）, and thelagged periods were 2, 2, 0, 3 months. Conclusion Drought-associated infectious diseases in Shandong province werebacterial dysentery, amoebic dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, measles, rubella, JE, and tsutsugamushi disease.

关 键 词：干旱 传染病 筛选 生态学研究 

分 类 号：R37[医药卫生—病原生物学]