中国主要耗能行业技术进步对节能减排的影响与展望  

Impact and prospect of technical progress in China's major energy intensive industries on energy conservation and emission reduction

作　　者：赵建安[1,2] 钟帅 沈镭[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《资源科学》2017年第12期2211-2222,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：中华人民共和国科学技术部2016年国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602800);国家自然科学基金重点基金项目(71633006);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41501604)

摘　　要：在中国能源消费规模不断增长背景下,实现2030年中国对世界的节能减排承诺,只有两个基本路径:(1)通过产业结构调整优化能源消费结构,实现静态节能减排;(2)通过科技创新与技术进步,降低单位能源消费碳排放因子,实现动态节能减排。动态节能减排主要包括三个方面:(1)通过全面系统化工程技术的创新与进步,增加核能、水能、风能、太阳能、地热能等各类低碳能源供给;(2)主要耗能产业部门技术装备革新,进一步提高化石能源氧化因子,提升能源消费转换效率;(3)通过新材料开发和工艺技术进步,增加低碳原材料替代和消费规模。本文主要针对电力、钢铁和建材等高能耗原材料、交通运输、建筑四大能源消耗领域及产业部门,基于上述动态节能减排的三个方面探讨至2030年时序节点时的节能减排前景。基本结论是:至2030年,技术进步能够对促进节能减排发挥重要作用,但难以产生革命性影响。In June 2015 the Chinese government officially launched the declaration ＂strengthening action on climate change - China national independent contribution＂ with a commitment that until 2030 per unit GDP carbon emissions will be reduced by 60%-65% compared with 2005 levels and the non-fossil energy of primary energy consumption ratio will reach 20%. Under energy consumption growth, there are only two pathways to fulfill the promise of energy conservation and emission reduction （ECER）toward 2030. First, reconstructing the industrial structures to optimize energy structure, called a static ECER. Second, promoting the progress of scientific innovation and technical progress to reduce carbon emission factors per unit of energy consumption, called a dynamic ECER. Moreover, the dynamic ECER can be defined into three perspectives： （1） increasing the supply of nuclear energy, hydroenergy, wind energy, solar energy and geothermal energy, relying on comprehensive and systematic innovation and progress of engineering technology; （2）promoting the technology and equipment innovation in major energy intensive industries to further raise the oxidant factor of fuel energy and transfer efficiency of energy consumption; and （3） expanding the scale of raw material substitution and consumption by developing new material and process engineering. We focused on four major energy intensive industries ： electricity, iron and steel, transportation and building materials, to discuss the prospect of ECER by 2030 based on three perspectives of dynamic ECER. Technical progress plays a vital role in promoting ECER until 2030, whereas it is difficult to create a revolutionary impact. A more reliable roadmap to lead the development of ECER in major energy intensive industries, with more concern on multiple solutions for technical application and improvement.

关 键 词：主要耗能行业 技术进步 节能减排 中国 展望 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]