黑龙江哈尔滨地区近60年极端气温变化研究  

Extreme Temperature Changes in Harbin Region,Heilongjiang Province,China over the Past 60 Years

作　　者：刘丹[1] 赵景波[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062 [2]中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安710075

出　　处：《地球与环境》2017年第6期587-599,共13页Earth and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40672108);中国科学院黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室项目(SKLLQG1428)

摘　　要：用1955~2013年哈尔滨市、尚志市(县)和通河县逐日气温资料,采用线性倾向法、距平及累积距平法、Morlet复数小波、主成分分析、相关性分析和Mann-Kendall检验法,对11个常用气候指标进行分析。结果表明,哈尔滨夏、秋、冬季气温呈上升趋势,冬季升温极为显著,春季气温以0.60℃/10a的速度显著下降;年均气温、年均最低温、年均最高温均有所增加,年均最低气温升幅最大。年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温、夏日日数、热夜日数、暖夜日数和暖日日数6个指标呈上升趋势变化;结冰日数、霜冻日数、冷夜日数、冷日日数及气温年较差5个指数呈下降趋势。年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温及变化率较大的暖夜日数,均有28~30 a的第一主周期和17~18 a的第二主周期,冷夜主要有3、6和8 a的短周期。主成分分析结果表明,高载荷的指数暖夜、冷夜和暖日这些相对指数的变化是哈尔滨极端气温变化的主要原因。相关关系矩阵表明,相对指数间的相关性极为显著;各暖指标、各冷指标间呈正相关,暖指标和冷指标间呈负相关。Mann-Kendall检验得知,冰日、冷夜和冷日三个冷指标的突变发生在20世纪70s、80s,其他指标的突变主要发生在1990~1999年间。总之,哈尔滨平均气温以0.32℃/10a的速率增加,升温幅度高于全国平均升温值0.26℃/10a,研究结果可为防灾减灾提供理论依据。Based on the daily temperature data of the period 1955-2013 from Harbin station, Shangzhi station, and Tonghe station, 11 common climate indices were analyzed by using linear trend method,anomaly and accumulative anomaly method,Morlet wavelet analy- sis, main component analysis, correlation analysis and Mann-Kendall test. Results show that, temperature of summer, autumn, and win- ter in Harbin are rising, winter temperature has increased significantly,while the spring temperature has an obvious reduction at a rate of 0. 60 ℃/10a; The annual average temperature, annual average minimum temperature,and annual average maximum temperature have increased, and the annual average minimum temperature has the largest rise. Six indices including annual extreme maximum tempera- ture, annual extreme minimum temperature, summer day, hot night, warm night, warm day are on the rise; five indices including ice day, frost day, cold night, cold day, annual temperature range are on the decline. Annual extreme maximum temperature, annual extreme minimum temperature and warm night with high rate of change have a first main cycle of 28- 30a and a second main cycle of 17 - 18a, cold night has short cycles of 3a,6a and 8a. Results of principle component analysis shows that changes of high load indices including warm night, cold night and warm day are probably the main reasons of Harbin＇s temperature change. Correlation matrix shows that corre- lations of relative indices are extremely significant; each warm index or cold index is positively correlated with the other warm or cold indices,but warm indices are negatively correlated with cold indices. From Mann-Kendall test,the mutation of three cold indices inclu- ding ice day,cold night and cold day mainly occurred in 1970s and 1980s, other indices＇ mutation mainly occurred during 1990- 1999. On the whole,the average temperature in Harbin has increased with a rate of O. 32 ℃/10a,temperature rising rate is higher than the na- tional average temperature rising rate of 0. 26 ℃/10a.

关 键 词：哈尔滨地区 极端气温 主要指数 周期规律 突变时间 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]