基于交通网络传递的传染病风险传播模型研究  

Model of Transmission of Infectious Diseases Based on Traffic Network

作　　者：张玉[1] 刘新新[1] 蔡传锋 贾志娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州师范学院,郑州450044

出　　处：《计算机与数字工程》2017年第12期2359-2363,共5页Computer & Digital Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于复杂网络的传染病溯源方法研究"(编号:U1304614)资助

摘　　要：针对我国复杂交通网络对传染病传播的巨大影响,提出一种基于马可夫链(Markov Chain)模型构建复杂社会交通网络中传染病动态的传播模型。模型以公路、高铁、自驾及航空等人口流动常见交通网络作为传染病传播模型研究的切入点,建立真实环境下的社会交通网络拓扑结构,并构建传染病风险指标模型。论文以近十年的新型流感病毒传染病为例,以感染人数重症病例数为验证标准进行验证。实验结果表明,经过该模型计算传染病传播的结果与实际病例数据呈现正相关性,因此该模型对预测传染病的潜在传染风险程度具有一定的研究价值。In view of the huge impact of the complex transportation network on the transmission of infectious diseases,a dy-namic model for the transmission of infectious diseases in complex social traffic network is proposed based on Markov Chain model.In the real environment,the social traffic network topology is established,which is based on the road,high-speed rail,car and airtraffic network as the starting point of the study of the transmission model of infectious diseases,and construct the infectious diseaserisk index model. This paper takes the ten years of new influenza virus infectious disease as an example,the number of infections inthe number of severe cases in order to verify the standard was verified. The experimental results show that the calculation model ofthe spread of infectious diseases results and actual case data showed positive correlation,so the potential infection risk degree of themodel for predicting infectious disease has certain research value.

关 键 词：复杂社会交通网络 马尔可夫链 传染病 风险指标模型 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]