土地利用结构变化对碳排放的影响关系及机理研究  

Research on Influences of Land Use Structure Change on Carbon Emissions

作　　者：李小康[1] 王晓鸣[1] 华虹 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学土木工程与力学学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]华中科技大学环境科学与工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第1期14-19,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划子课题“绿色生态村镇规划建设评价监测技术研究与示范”(2014BAL04B03-3)

摘　　要：为探究土地利用结构变化对碳排放变化的影响及机理，文章首先分析了2002--2013年土地利用结构及碳排放的变化情况，其次通过协整检验分析各类用地面积与净碳排放量是否存在长期动态均衡关系，再次通过Granger因果检验分析影响净碳排放变化的主要地类，最后通过扩展的Kaya模型分析影响净碳排放变化的主要因素对净碳排放变化的作用方向及边际贡献。结果表明：（1）农用地、建设用地总量与净碳排放量之间存在长期动态均衡关系，而耕地等8类用地面积与净碳排放量之间不存在；（2）Granger因果检验表明建设用地总量变化是影响净碳排放量变化的主要原因；（3）建设用地总量对净碳排放量的边际贡献为3．99，表明建设用地总量每增加1％会引起净碳排放量增加3．99％。The purpose of this paper is to assess the influence of land use structure change on carbon emissions and analyze the action mechanism of the influence. The processes of the research are as follows： Firstly, the change of land use structure and carbon emissions in China during 2002-2013 were analyzed. Secondly, whether there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between each type of land and net carbon emissions were analyzed through cointegration test. Thirdly, Granger causality test was used to analyze the main land use types that affected net carbon emission. Finally, how the main land use types affect net carbon emissions was analyzed. The main conclusions are as the following： （1） There has dynamic equilibrium relationship between agricultural land, construction land and net carbon emissions while the relationship doesn＇t exist between cultivated land, other types of land and net carbon emissions. （2） Granger causality test shows that the change of construction land is the main reason for the change of net carbon emission. （3） Construction land＇s each increase of 1% will cause net carbon emissions＇ increase of 3.99%.

关 键 词：土地利用 碳排放 协整检验 GRANGER因果检验 Kaya扩展模型 影响机理 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] F062.2