雄安新区地震危险性评估  

Seismic hazard assessment in the Xiongan New Area

作　　者：杨百存 秦四清[1,2,3] 薛雷 吴晓娲[4] 张珂 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所中国科学院页岩气与地质工程重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国科学院地球科学研究院,北京100029 [4]北京工业大学城市与工程安全减灾省部共建教育部重点试验室,北京100124

出　　处：《地球物理学报》2017年第12期4644-4654,共11页Chinese Journal of Geophysics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41572311;41302233)资助

摘　　要：地震危险性评估对确定工程抗震设防等级、制定城市规划与减轻地震灾害等具有重要意义.由于传统分析方法存在诸多缺陷,用其对特定区域进行地震危险性评估可靠性差.本文基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,提出了利用岩石破裂自相似性预测研究区标志性预震的方法,并进而创立了一种以地震物理预测为基础的地震危险性评估新方法.雄安新区位于唐山地震区内,近邻运城地震区.基于唐山和运城地震区地震趋势分析结果及主要断裂展布与雄安新区位置关系,在唐山地震区内划分了保定研究区,在运城地震区内划分了行唐和十渡研究区.采用上述方法,预测了这三个区将发生的较大预震.根据某些学者提出的地震烈度经验公式,评估了唐山地震区发生标志性地震、预震及运城地震区发生预震导致的雄安新区地震烈度.结果表明,未来50年内,雄安新区抗震设防烈度从原7度调整为8度为宜.Seismic hazard assessment is very important for determining seismic fortification grade of engineering projects, making urban planning and reducing earthquake disasters, etc. Due to some drawbacks of traditional evaluation methods, it is generally unreliable to assess seismic risk in a certain area by applying these methods. Based on the theory about the brittle failures of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system, an approach to predict characteristic preshocks in a defined research zone is presented by means of self-similarity of rock failures, and then a new methodology to assess seismic hazard is originally established on the premise of the physical prediction of major earthquakes. The Xiongan New Area adjacent to the Yuncheng seismic zone is located in the Tangshan seismic zone. According to the analysis on the earthquake trend in the Tangshan and Yuncheng seismic zones and the position relation between the distribution of main faults and the Xiongan New Area, the Baoding research zone is defined within the Tangshan seismic zone, and the Xingtang and Shidu research zones are also defined within the Yuncheng seismic zone. By adopting the above-mentioned approach, major preshocks that will occur in the three zones are predicted. Applying the empirical formulas of seismic intensity presented by some scholars, we evaluate the seismic intensity in the Xiongan New Area when the characteristic earthquake and the preshocks in the Tangshan seismic zone and the preshocks in the Yuncheng seismic zone occur in the future, respectively. The present result suggests that the seismic fortification intensity in the Xiongan New Area in the next 50 years should be adjusted from original 7 degree to 8 degree.

关 键 词：雄安新区 多锁固段 标志性地震 预震 地震危险性评估 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]