中国旅游经济发展的分布动态演进  

Distributional dynamic and evolution of China's tourism economic development

作　　者：赵黎明[1] 焦珊珊[1] 姚治国[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]天津外国语大学国际商学院,天津300204

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2018年第1期181-188,共8页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(13&ZD162)资助

摘　　要：以中国31个省(市、区)人均旅游总收入为代理变量,运用Arcgis10.2工具和分布动态法(MEDD)考察了2000-2015年中国旅游业发展的分布特征和演进趋势。实证研究结果表明:1)样本考察期内,我国旅游经济发展水平呈现出明显的上升趋势,存在着显著的东中西梯度递减的格局特征,省际之间差异明显。2)全国及东中西旅游经济发展水平逐渐提高,区域差距逐渐增大,但是极化状况不一。3)不同旅游经济发展水平之间流动性较差,但是也呈现出进阶式发展趋势。到2025年,大部分省份的旅游经济发展水平将处于类型Ⅳ(中高水平)和类型Ⅴ(高水平)。Taking per capita total revenue from tourism of 31 provincial level administrative units as the agent variables,we made an empirical study on the distribution characteristics and evolution trend of China’s tourism development from 2000 to 2015 by using Arcgis tools and distributed dynamic method（MEDD）.The results showed that：（1） There was a clear upward trend in China’s tourism economy development,but differences among provinces were obvious.There was significant pattern of gradient decreasing from eastern,central to western areas.（2） The tourism economic development of national and three regions gradually increased,the regional gap gradually increased,but the polarization situation was different.（3） There was a poor mobility and a progressive development trend between different levels of tourism economy.By 2025,the tourism economy of the most provinces（municipalities or districts） will be in the level of development of type Ⅳ（higher level） and typeⅤ（the highest level）.

关 键 词：旅游经济发展 分布动态 核密度估计 MARKOV链 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]