中国农民进城定居的意愿与影响因素——基于CGSS2010的分析  

The determinants for peasants' migration intentions of moving to cities in China: An analysis based on the CGSS 2010

作　　者：杨传开[1] 刘晔[2] 徐伟[3,4] 宁越敏 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院城市与人口发展研究所,上海200020 [2]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州510275 [3]华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心,上海200062 [4]莱斯桥大学地理系

出　　处：《地理研究》2017年第12期2369-2382,共14页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41701192;41501151);教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(17JJD790007);上海市浦江人才计划项目(17PJC076)

摘　　要：新型城镇化是以人为核心的城镇化,因此农民城镇化意愿备受关注。基于2010年中国综合社会调查(CGSS2010)的数据,采用描述性统计和多层次Logistic回归模型,探讨了农民进城定居意愿和对不同等级城镇的选择偏好,并分析了其影响因素。研究表明:农民进城定居意愿较弱,且大多倾向于在县城或小城镇而非地级及以上城市定居。农民的进城意愿和城市偏好存在着显著的地理空间异质性。来自于同一村庄的农民,其进城意愿和对不同等级城镇的偏好具有较多的相似性。影响农民进城意愿的主要因素包括:个体人力资本禀赋、家庭人口结构、物质资本存量、城乡联系以及地区社会经济发展水平等。地区经济发展水平和地理区位是农民选择到小城镇而非地级及以上城市定居的主要影响因素。因此,促进县域城镇化发展,提高农民人力资本和家庭收入,是实现农村城镇化和农民市民化的有效途径。China has experienced the unprecedented surge of rural-urban migration since the mid-1980s, which has led to rapid urban population growth. With the development of human- oriented new urbanization, the individual migration intentions attracted more attentions from scholars and governments in recent years. However, previous studies mainly examined the factors underpinning the peasant workers＇ intentions of settling down in various cities or returning rural hometowns, devoting insufficient attention to the peasants＇ migration intentions of leaving the countryside and moving to cities to settle down permanently. Based on the data of Chinese General Social Survey in 2010 （CGSS2010）, the paper described the migration intentions of 4116 rural residents and then explained their migration intentions from three levels of individual, household and county with the multilevel Logistic model. The results are as follows. （1） The spatial heterogeneity makes the peasants who live in the same village have more similarity in migration intentions than those who live in different villages. Single level model ignores the spatial heterogeneity, and the inclusion of the spatial heterogeneity in the mukilevel model can yield a better estimated result than single level model. （2） Most of the peasants do not intend to leave the countryside and move to cities in the next five years, and nearly 90% of peasants intend to stay in the countryside. 63.3% of peasants who intend to move to cities incline to moving to small cities and towns （counties, county-level cities and small towns）, while 29.8% of peasants tend to move to prefecture-level cities, provincial capital cities and municipalities. （3） The peasants＇ migration decisions of leaving the countryside and moving to cities can be seen as a two-stage process. First, they decide whether or not to move to cities, and then they need to consider which city to settle down after they decide to leave the countryside. The empirical results show that the first-stage migrat

关 键 词：乡城迁移 城镇化 定居意愿 农民 多层Logistic回归 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济] F323.6