地铁隧道施工安全风险演化的BP-SD模型研究  

Research on BP-SD model for evolution of construction safety risk of subway tunnel

作　　者：江新 胡文佳[1,2] 袁轩 孙正熙 郑霞忠[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [3]广东省水文局茂名水文分局,广东茂名525000

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2017年第12期67-72,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目(CKWV2016382/KY);国家自然科学基金项目(51379110);水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学)开放基金项目(2016KSD20)

摘　　要：为深入研究地铁隧道施工风险的动态演化过程,结合系统动力学(SD)、误差反向传播(BP)神经网络与平均影响值(MIV)算法,确定模型中影响因素间的因果关系和影响函数,构建地铁隧道施工风险演化的BP-SD模型。模型仿真结果表明:安全管理风险系统与施工人员风险系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响最大,施工环境系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响次之,机械设备系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响最小。因此,可通过降低安全管理风险值与施工人员风险值控制地铁隧道施工风险发生的概率。In order to deeply study the dynamic evolution process of construction risk of subway tunnel,a BP-SD model for construction risk evolution of subway tunnel was constructed and the causal relationship and influencing functions of the influence factors in the model were determined by combining with the system dynamics(SD),error back propagation(BP) neural network and mean influence value(MIV) algorithm.The simulation results of the model showed that the change of safety management risk system value and construction personnel risk system value had the greatest impact on the construction risk value of subway tunnel,while the impact by the change of construction environment system value took the second place,and the change of the mechanical equipment system value had the least impact.Therefore,the occurrence probability of construction risk of subway tunnel can be controlled through reducing the safety management risk value and the construction personnel risk value.

关 键 词：地铁隧道 施工安全 风险演化 BP-SD模型 仿真 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]