基于短期历史资料的风能预报中风速误差循环订正新方法  

A New Cycle Correction Method for Wind Speed Error in Wind Energy Forecast Based on Short-term Historical Data

作　　者：张铁军[1,2] 颜鹏程[2] 李照荣 王有生 李耀辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [3]甘肃省气象服务中心,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱气象》2017年第6期1042-1052,共11页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家电网(河北)项目(SGTYHT/16-JS-198);国家自然科学基金(41375069,41405094,41605119);中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所科研启动基金(KYS2016BSKY01)共同资助

摘　　要：风电场风能预报的准确性对于风力发电在并网过程中的稳定性有很大影响,提升风能预报水平能够有效减轻电网并网压力、降低经济运行成本。基于历史资料提出一种可快速更新的风速预报误差订正方法,该方法利用甘肃省风电功率预报系统的风速预报结果并结合实况资料对模拟风速的趋势、均值、方差进行订正,并应用于甘肃省内3个风电场(黑崖子、马昌山、南湫)的风速预报误差订正。结果表明:订正前风速的平均误差为2~3 m·s^(-1)、订正后为1~2 m·s^(-1),误差率改善17%~23%,本研究为风速误差订正提供了一个新思路和新方法。The accuracy of wind energy forecast of wind farm has a great influence on the stability of wind power generation in the process of grid-connected. Thus,to improve the level of wind energy forecast would reduce grid connection pressure effectively and reduce economic operation costs. Based on the historical data,a method to modify the wind speed forecast error was proposed in this paper. The method used the wind forecast results of wind power forecast in Gansu Province and combined the actual data to revise the trend,mean and variance of simulated wind speed. By applying the method in three wind farms including Heiyazi,Machangshan and Nanqiu,the results show that the average errors of corrected wind speed were 2-3 m·s-1 and 1-2 m·s-1 before and after revise,respectively,and the error rate was improved by 17%-23%,which reduced the wind speed forecast error effectively and raised the prediction level. This study provided a new idea and a new method for wind speed error correction.

关 键 词：风能预报 误差分析 统计订正 

分 类 号：P404[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]