The prospects for China＇＇s food security and imports： Will China starve the world via imports？  

作　　者：HUANG Ji-kun WEI Wei CUI Qi XIE Wei 

机构地区：[1]China Center for Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, P.R. China [2]Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P.R.China [3]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R.China

出　　处：《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》2017年第12期2933-2944,共12页农业科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：financial supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71333013 and 71503243);the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Y02015004 and GJHZ1312);the Tsinghua University, China (CIRS2016-03);the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2017M610710)

摘　　要：China＇s food supply and demand have significant implications for both China＇s own national food security and that of the world. This study reviews China＇s food security prospects and their implications, focusing on international trade in the coming decade. The results show that China＇s policies for ensuring food security will be enhanced and China will move to sustainable agriculture. Most studies anticipate that China will increase its food and feed imports in the coming decade. China＇s overall food self-sufficiency is likely to fall from 94.5% in 2015 to around 91% by 2025. The greatest increases in imports are likely to be soybean, maize, sugar, and dairy products. However, within the production capacity of the major exporting countries and of many food-importing developing countries, China＇s additional imports of 3 to 5% of its total food consumption in the coming decade are unlikely to threaten global food security. Indeed, the projected imports of feed and several foods could provide opportunities for many exporting countries to expand their production and save global resources.China＇s food supply and demand have significant implications for both China＇s own national food security and that of the world. This study reviews China＇s food security prospects and their implications, focusing on international trade in the coming decade. The results show that China＇s policies for ensuring food security will be enhanced and China will move to sustainable agriculture. Most studies anticipate that China will increase its food and feed imports in the coming decade. China＇s overall food self-sufficiency is likely to fall from 94.5% in 2015 to around 91% by 2025. The greatest increases in imports are likely to be soybean, maize, sugar, and dairy products. However, within the production capacity of the major exporting countries and of many food-importing developing countries, China＇s additional imports of 3 to 5% of its total food consumption in the coming decade are unlikely to threaten global food security. Indeed, the projected imports of feed and several foods could provide opportunities for many exporting countries to expand their production and save global resources.

关 键 词：food security food supply IMPORT China GLOBAL 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]