上海市规模猪场猪伪狂犬病传播风险因素调查  

A Survey on the Risk Factors of Porcine Pseudorabies Transmission in Scaled Swine Farms of Shanghai City

作　　者：夏炉明[1] 孙泉云[1] 陈琦[1] 沈朝建[2] 张毅[2] 朱九超 卫龙兴[3] 戴连群[3] 赵洪进[1] 沈素芳[1] 卢军[1] 王曲直[1] Xia Luming;Sun Quanyun;Chen Qi;Shen Chaojian;Zhang Yi;Zhu Jiuchao;Wei Longxing;Dai Lianqun;Zhao Hongjin;Shen Sufang;Lu Jun;Wang Quzhi(Shanghai Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center,Shanghai201103,China;China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center,Qingdao,Shangdong266032,China;Fengxian District Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center,Shanghai201400,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市动物疫病预防控制中心,上海201103 [2]中国动物卫生与流行病学中心,山东青岛266032 [3]上海市奉贤区动物疫病预防控制中心,上海201400

出　　处：《中国动物检疫》2018年第1期1-6,共6页China Animal Health Inspection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1200500);上海市生猪产业体系建设(沪农科产字(2017)第6号)

摘　　要：为评估上海市规模猪场(母猪存栏量≥350头)猪伪狂犬病(PR)场群流行率,探寻PR传播的风险因素,通过两阶段随机抽样策略,抽取91个规模猪场,采集母猪血清样品1 349份;采用gp I-ELISA方法进行猪伪狂犬病病毒(PRV)野毒感染抗体检测,同步对采样规模猪场进行问卷调查;将调查的风险因素转换成二分类变量,用Epi info^(TM)7软件进行单因素分析;筛选出P<0.05的变量,对其进行多因素Logistic回归分析,并建立ROC曲线,计算模型的预测概率。抗体检测结果显示,上海市规模猪场PR场群流行率为62.76%(95%CI:52.82%~72.69%)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示:1年内引进种猪(OR:4.84,95%CI:1.53~15.3,P=0.007)、引进公猪精液(OR:10.63,95%CI:0.88~130.41,P=0.06)、病死猪收集场所位于场区内(OR:3.65,95%CI:1.15~11.59,P=0.03)和场内有流浪犬猫(OR:5.12,95%CI:1.47~17.81,P=0.01)是导致PR传播的主要危害性因素;引种/引进精液时检测PRV g E抗体(OR:0.31,95%CI:0.09~1.12,P=0.07)为主要保护性因素。多因素Logistic回归模型建立的ROC曲线下面积为0.844(95%CI:75.3%~93.5%)。本研究掌握了上海市规模猪场PR的流行和分布情况,建立了规模猪场PR场间传播的多因素Logistic风险模型,为上海市规模猪场的PR防控和净化工作提供了依据。In order to evaluate the herd prevalence of Porcine pseudorabies（PR）in scaled swine farms（sow number≥ 350）of Shanghai City and to identify the risk factors of PR transmission,1 349 sow serum samples were collected in 91 scaled swine farms by two-stage random sampling strategy. Detection of antibody to PRV ？eld strain was carried out by gpI-ELISA,and the questionnaire survey on the scaled swine farms was implemented at the same time. All the risk factors were converted to binary variables and univariate analysis was carried out by Epi infoTM 7. Variables （P〈0.05）were screened and analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analysis,and the ROC curve was established to calculate the predicted probability of Logistic regression model. The antibody test results showed that the herd prevalence of PR in Shanghai City was 62.76%（95%CI ：52.82%-72.69%）. The multivariate Logistic regression analysis results indicated that the introduction of boar in 1 year（OR ：4.84,95%CI ：1.53-15.30,P=0.007）,the introduction of boar semen（OR ：10.63,95%CI ：0.88-130.41,P=0.06）,the collection station of dead swine was located in swine farm（OR： 3.65,95%CI： 1.15-11.59,P=0.03）,the street dogs and cats were found in farm（OR：5.12,95%CI ：1.47-17.81,P=0.01）were signi？cant risk factors of PRV transmission,and testing the gE antibody while introducing boar semen（OR ：0.31,95%CI ：0.09-1.12,P=0.07）was a significant protective factor. The area under ROC curve was 0.844（95%CI ：75.3%-93.5%）. Through this study,the prevalence and distribution of PR in scaled swine farms of Shanghai City were recognized,and a multi-factor Logistic risk model of PR ？eld spread in scaled swine farms was established,which could provide guidance for PR prevention,control and puri？cation of scaled swine farms in Shanghai City.

关 键 词：规模猪场 猪伪狂犬病 场群流行率 横断面研究 风险因素 

分 类 号：S851.3[农业科学—预防兽医学]